We have reached a new milestone when it comes to the median age of currently-serving Protestant pastors. It is now sixty. (I deliberately spelled out “sixty” in case any of you would have thought the number “60” was a typo.) This is the current estimate from author Thom Rainer, founder of Church Answers, an organization focusing on congregational revitalization and outreach. “Sixty.” Reflect on that for a moment. I consider this something of a milestone; and not in a good way.
I realize that my repeated articles regarding the clergy shortage are beginning to sound like a “broken record”; at least to those of you who are old enough to remember what “records” are. But I am becoming convinced that many denominational leaders, seminary staff, pastors nearing retirement, and congregational leaders are simply not paying attention when it comes to the gravity of this situation. Or perhaps they do understand the severity of this crisis but are hesitant to acknowledge it publicly. After all, none of us want to be labeled as “alarmists”. And then there is always the possibility that the world is about to end, so why worry? Anecdote: Survey results this last March of 3400 Americans indicate that one third of them believe the world will end in their lifetimes. The New York Times labels this a recent “mainstream apocalypse” world view.
Allow me to speculate on possible questions from those of you who might consider my concerns about the clergy supply situation “alarmist.”
1. “As a pastor who is still a few years from retirement, why should I be overly concerned regarding my congregation’s transition after I leave?” Answer: Because odds are your congregation will not be able to replace you, and might need to consider “raising up” the next pastor from among your active church members. And training, mentoring and educating (with online seminary courses) that prospective pastor will take years, not months.
2. “But why would it take years to replace me?” Answer: Because the current median age of serving pastors is sixty; in case you already forgot. And because twice as many Lutheran pastors retire each year as there are new seminary students graduating. To put it bluntly, this crisis is something that is beyond what denominational leaders can manage on their own. Not because they aren’t trying, but because this crisis is unprecedented. Unprecedented in my lifetime, and even unprecedented going back a century or more.
3. “As congregational lay-leaders why can’t our church manage even a long-term interim on our own? After all, we might be relatively small and have an older membership, but we are a strong fellowship of believers; both in terms of our commitment and our financial support.” Answer: Perhaps you can manage a two or three-year transitional interim, but what if it stretches to four or five years or more? Consider this September/2025 quote from Karl Vaters, a pastor and author who focuses on the challenges faced by smaller churches: “Pastoral transitions are dangerous and traumatic times for churches…Other than the church planting phase, more churches close due to pastoral transition than for any other reason.”
One Current Example of a “Pastor-in-Training” Ministry Initiative
Here is one case of a church seeking to plan ahead when it comes to an upcoming pastoral transition. Not coincidentally, I happen to be a member of this congregation.
The dual-rostered (LCMC/NALC) congregation I attend is Our Savior’s Lutheran in Salem, Oregon.
Our Savior’s (OSLC) is currently served by one full-time, lead pastor: Tom Hux. Pastor Hux has announced his plan to retire in four years; at the age of 65. Just this last April (2026) OSLC formally voted (overwhelmingly) to hire an active member—Greg—to join our congregation’s full-time ministry staff as a lay minister. His job description is to work three-quarters time to assist Pastor Hux in the area of pastoral care, teaching, worship leadership, and occasional preaching. However, one quarter of Greg’s full-time position will be devoted to his taking online seminary courses; with the goal of eventually earning a Master of Divinity degree. The congregation’s hope and expectation is that, once he graduates with his Master of Divinity degree, Greg will then be formally called to serve OSLC as an ordained pastor
So what led OSLC to this point? These seven developments:
a) In June of 2023 OSLC’s full-time Associate Pastor resigned after serving five years. This was the beginning of OSLC’s pastoral vacancy.
b) In March of 2024 a call committee was organized to launch a search for a new ordained pastor to serve with Pastor Hux.
c) After a two-year unsuccessful search process, the call committee endorsed—unanimously—a proposal to begin a “pastor-in-training” strategy in an effort to identify and enlist an active lay leader to join OSLC’s ministry staff and—simultaneously—begin an online seminary education.
d) At a special congregational meeting in the fall of 2025 the decision was made to support the formation of a “Pastor-in-Training” team to begin working on pursuing this new ministry strategy. At this point the call committee would still continue to meet, and OSLC continued to list its pastoral vacancy.
f) In March of this year (2026) a second, special congregational meeting was announced and scheduled (for April 12th) to vote on hiring our recruit Greg, an active member, as our new lay minister and pastor-in-training. This upcoming congregational meeting would also be when the call committee—at least temporarily—would disband, and when OSLC’s pastoral vacancy would no longer be posted.
g) One month prior to this upcoming special congregational meeting a Sunday forum was held to introduce Greg to the membership; and to explain the agenda for the congregational meeting. Over 150 members attended this forum.
h) The official congregational meeting (and vote) was held on April 12th of this year. Greg spoke to those in attendance prior to the motion and vote. The vote outcome—by written ballot—was just over 98% in favor of hiring Greg as part of our “pastor-in-training” strategy.
This is, of course, just one congregation’s “journey”; a journey that will be playing out over the next few years. However, I share these details to make a point: Given the current clergy shortage, churches need to be—more than ever—engaged in advanced planning related to their pastoral transitions. For Lutheran congregations this is in part about taking the New Testament (and Martin Luther) seriously when it comes to the “priesthood” we all—clergy and laity alike—share as Christ followers. This clergy shortage will not, in my opinion, be “fixed” in the foreseeable future. As a result, many congregations will need to organize to be effectively lay-led for the years it will take while one of their active members is educated (online), trained, and mentored for ordained ministry. This is especially true for smaller churches; but will also be the future faced by many mid-sized and larger congregations.
However, on a less-bleak “note”: We want to keep some historical perspective here. The first and second century church not only survived but thrived in a Roman Empire that was not only pagan, but was openly persecuting the Body of Christ. And that persecution began, needless to say, long before there were seminary-trained clergy available for call. So we must not forget that, for most of today’s churches, their strength and institutional viability has been built on the commitment of their active members even more than their serving pastors. And let’s never forget that the local church, when well-led, and guided by the Holy Spirit, is still an incredibly effective means of witnessing to the love and mercy of Jesus Christ.
Finally, the details of how a congregation faces the challenge of a major pastoral transition can be incredibly complex. There’s nothing “easy” about this. As a result, the best way to address this challenge always needs to be a strategy customized for the unique characteristics, strengths and mission of each individual congregation. But perhaps you’re not even sure how to begin when it comes to facing this challenge; whether your time of transition is already happening, or it will be sometime within the next few years. If that describes what your church is facing, Lutheran CORE’s Congregations in Transition and Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative ministries are available to assist you.
One last thought for you to reflect on: Whenever congregations are about to face a major leadership transition, it is essential that church lay leaders and pastors plan in advance to address this challenge. Let me be of assistance. Details for both the CiT and CLI ministries are available on the Lutheran CORE website.
If you have any questions you can always email me at pastordonbrandt@gmail.com.
