We have reached a new milestone when it comes to the median age of currently-serving Protestant pastors.  It is now sixty.  (I deliberately spelled out “sixty” in case any of you would have thought the number “60” was a typo.)  This is the current estimate from author Thom Rainer, founder of Church Answers, an organization focusing on congregational revitalization and outreach.  “Sixty.”  Reflect on that for a moment.  I consider this something of a milestone; and not in a good way.

I realize that my repeated articles regarding the clergy shortage are beginning to sound like a “broken record”; at least to those of you who are old enough to remember what “records” are.  But I am becoming convinced that many denominational leaders, seminary staff, pastors nearing retirement, and congregational leaders are simply not paying attention when it comes to the gravity of this situation.  Or perhaps they do understand the severity of this crisis but are hesitant to acknowledge it publicly.  After all, none of us want to be labeled as “alarmists”.  And then there is always the possibility that the world is about to end, so why worry?  Anecdote: Survey results this last March of 3400 Americans indicate that one third of them believe the world will end in their lifetimes. The New York Times labels this a recent “mainstream apocalypse” world view.

Allow me to speculate on possible questions from those of you who might consider my concerns about the clergy supply situation “alarmist.”

1. “As a pastor who is still a few years from retirement, why should I be overly concerned regarding my congregation’s transition after I leave?”  Answer: Because odds are your congregation will not be able to replace you, and might need to consider “raising up” the next pastor from among your active church members.  And training, mentoring and educating (with online seminary courses) that prospective pastor will take years, not months.

2. “But why would it take years to replace me?”  Answer: Because the current median age of serving pastors is sixty; in case you already forgot.  And because twice as many Lutheran pastors retire each year as there are new seminary students graduating.  To put it bluntly, this crisis is something that is beyond what denominational leaders can manage on their own.  Not because they aren’t trying, but because this crisis is unprecedented.  Unprecedented in my lifetime, and even unprecedented going back a century or more.

3. “As congregational lay-leaders why can’t our church manage even a long-term interim on our own? After all, we might be relatively small and have an older membership, but we are a strong fellowship of believers; both in terms of our commitment and our financial support.”  Answer: Perhaps you can manage a two or three-year transitional interim, but what if it stretches to four or five years or more?  Consider this September/2025 quote from Karl Vaters, a pastor and author who focuses on the challenges faced by smaller churches: “Pastoral transitions are dangerous and traumatic times for churches…Other than the church planting phase, more churches close due to pastoral transition than for any other reason.”

One Current Example of a “Pastor-in-Training” Ministry Initiative

Here is one case of a church seeking to plan ahead when it comes to an upcoming pastoral transition.  Not coincidentally, I happen to be a member of this congregation.

The dual-rostered (LCMC/NALC) congregation I attend is Our Savior’s Lutheran in Salem, Oregon.

Our Savior’s (OSLC) is currently served by one full-time, lead pastor: Tom Hux.  Pastor Hux has announced his plan to retire in four years; at the age of 65.  Just this last April (2026) OSLC formally voted (overwhelmingly) to hire an active member—Greg—to join our congregation’s full-time ministry staff as a lay minister.  His job description is to work three-quarters time to assist Pastor Hux in the area of pastoral care, teaching, worship leadership, and occasional preaching.  However, one quarter of Greg’s full-time position will be devoted to his taking online seminary courses; with the goal of eventually earning a Master of Divinity degree.  The congregation’s hope and expectation is that, once he graduates with his Master of Divinity degree, Greg will then be formally called to serve OSLC as an ordained pastor

So what led OSLC to this point?  These seven developments:

a) In June of 2023 OSLC’s full-time Associate Pastor resigned after serving five years.  This was the beginning of OSLC’s pastoral vacancy.

b) In March of 2024 a call committee was organized to launch a search for a new ordained pastor to serve with Pastor Hux.

c) After a two-year unsuccessful search process, the call committee endorsed—unanimously—a proposal to begin a “pastor-in-training” strategy in an effort to identify and enlist an active lay leader to join OSLC’s ministry staff and—simultaneously—begin an online seminary education.

d) At a special congregational meeting in the fall of 2025 the decision was made to support the formation of a “Pastor-in-Training” team to begin working on pursuing this new ministry strategy.  At this point the call committee would still continue to meet, and OSLC continued to list its pastoral vacancy.

f) In March of this year (2026) a second, special congregational meeting was announced and scheduled (for April 12^th) to vote on hiring our recruit Greg, an active member, as our new lay minister and pastor-in-training.  This upcoming congregational meeting would also be when the call committee—at least temporarily—would disband, and when OSLC’s pastoral vacancy would no longer be posted.

g) One month prior to this upcoming special congregational meeting a Sunday forum was held to introduce Greg to the membership; and to explain the agenda for the congregational meeting. Over 150 members attended this forum.

h) The official congregational meeting (and vote) was held on April 12^th of this year.  Greg spoke to those in attendance prior to the motion and vote.  The vote outcome—by written ballot—was just over 98% in favor of hiring Greg as part of our “pastor-in-training” strategy.

This is, of course, just one congregation’s “journey”; a journey that will be playing out over the next few years.  However, I share these details to make a point: Given the current clergy shortage, churches need to be—more than ever—engaged in advanced planning related to their pastoral transitions.  For Lutheran congregations this is in part about taking the New Testament (and Martin Luther) seriously when it comes to the “priesthood” we all—clergy and laity alike—share as Christ followers.  This clergy shortage will not, in my opinion, be “fixed” in the foreseeable future.  As a result, many congregations will need to organize to be effectively lay-led for the years it will take while one of their active members is educated (online), trained, and mentored for ordained ministry.  This is especially true for smaller churches; but will also be the future faced by many mid-sized and larger congregations.

However, on a less-bleak “note”: We want to keep some historical perspective here.  The first and second century church not only survived but thrived in a Roman Empire that was not only pagan, but  was openly persecuting the Body of Christ.  And that persecution began, needless to say, long before there were seminary-trained clergy available for call.  So we must not forget that, for most of today’s churches, their strength and institutional viability has been built on the commitment of their active members even more than their serving pastors.  And let’s never forget that the local church, when well-led, and guided by the Holy Spirit, is still an incredibly effective means of witnessing to the love and mercy of Jesus Christ.

Finally, the details of how a congregation faces the challenge of a major pastoral transition can be incredibly complex.  There’s nothing “easy” about this.  As a result, the best way to address this challenge always needs to be a strategy customized for the unique characteristics, strengths and mission of each individual congregation.  But perhaps you’re not even sure how to begin when it comes to facing this challenge; whether your time of transition is already happening, or it will be sometime within the next few years.  If that describes what your church is facing, Lutheran CORE’s Congregations in Transition and Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative ministries are available to assist you.

One last thought for you to reflect on: Whenever congregations are about to face a major leadership transition, it is essential that church lay leaders and pastors plan in advance to address this challenge.  Let me be of assistance.  Details for both the CiT and CLI ministries are available on the Lutheran CORE website. 

If you have any questions you can always email me at pastordonbrandt@gmail.com.

 

While I have written about the clergy shortage in the past, my concern continues to grow for churches who are, or soon will be, dealing with a pastoral vacancy.  Keep in mind that this concern of mine isn’t just about the current shortage of pastors available for call.  In fact, if I could be convinced that this “shortage” has plateaued and will be corrected within the next few years, I would relax and stop obsessing.

However, this clergy supply crisis has not plateaued and in fact continues to grow more severe. For example, consider the two largest Lutheran denominations in North America and what they are facing when it comes to the shortage of pastors.  I am referring to the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA) and the Lutheran Church Missouri Synod (LCMS).  An ELCA internal study released in early 2025 stated that each year twice as many ELCA pastors retire as there are seminarians graduating.  (And keep in mind that the ELCA still has seven seminaries!)  Moreover, Portico Benefit Services, the ELCA’s retirement fund, estimated in 2025 that forty percent of ELCA pastors would be retiring within five years.  The LCMS, the second largest Lutheran denomination in North America, reported that, as of 2019, they had approximately 6,000 serving pastors.  Their forecast, based on trends in 2019, was that by 2034 they would only have about 3,000 serving pastors.  That’s right: a 50 percent decrease.

No doubt most of you reading this belong to either an NALC or LCMC congregation.  If that is the case perhaps you are thinking, “Wait a minute; since the above statistics and forecasts are for the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America and the Lutheran Church Missouri Synod, they certainly do not apply to NALC and LCMC congregations.”  Well if that’s indeed what you’re thinking, don’t fool yourself.  The current clergy-supply crisis is not only national; it’s cross-denominational.

This means that every year that passes we are dealing with an increasing number of call committees seeking a pastor from among a rapidly shrinking number of available clergy. 

As if this isn’t enough to contribute to my “obsession” over this “existential” congregational crisis, allow me to point out additional causes for my alarm: Even though national church bodies and seminaries are aware of this growing clergy-supply crisis, I’m not convinced they are able to do enough to effectively address it.  And if I’m right about this, it means that—in many if not most cases—congregations will need to “step up” and take the initiative to secure their long-term pastoral leadership.  And that will require “thinking outside the box”; especially when considering the manner in which U.S. Lutheran congregations, over the last 100 years, have traditionally filled their pastoral vacancies.

What’s needed in 2026 and beyond will be many congregations taking full ownership of the pastoral supply process by enlisting and “calling” their future pastoral leaders from among their own church members.  To explain this ministry strategy more fully, consider one possible scenario as it was implemented at the hypothetical Grace Lutheran Church located in the American Midwest.

Grace Lutheran’s Scenario

Grace Lutheran is located in an economically stable, small city in the upper Midwest.  The congregation was and is financially sound and has just over one hundred worshipers attending on a typical Sunday.  A few years ago, Grace Lutheran’s pastor, Pastor Olson (of course), announced publicly that he would be retiring within one to two years. This came as something of a surprise to many members since Pastor Olson is active, in good health, and had already served the congregation for twenty-two years.  In his announcement Pastor Olson explained that he was willing, if needed, to stay the entire two additional years, but was also ready to leave sooner if the congregation was able to find and call the “right” pastor—whether an interim pastor or their next long-term pastor.

The Council at Grace immediately “got to work” and became a kind of “transition team” to address their upcoming pastoral vacancy.  Then, within six months, the Council recruited a Call Committee and secured congregational approval for these new Committee members.

Due to the extreme shortage of available ordained Lutheran pastors, the Call Committee began to think, after nine months, that the “right” pastor might not be “out there”.  This was not only the case in regards to a candidate for their long-term “permanent” call; it was also true when it came to finding a short-term interim pastor.  As this search process dragged out to a full year, Call Committee and Council members begin to become disheartened and demoralized.  It wasn’t that they didn’t have any applicants for their position.  However, the few pastors that did apply were either unqualified for Grace Lutheran’s call, or they were interviewing with multiple call committees and ended up eventually withdrawing their names from consideration. The two-year deadline until Pastor Olson’s retirement began to “loom on the horizon.”

However, as an LCMC congregation, Grace Lutheran started to think “outside the box” when it came to the challenge of securing their future long-term pastoral leadership.  They became aware of two complimentary ministry strategies which helped bring clarity as to how to address this challenge. One ministry strategy was Lutheran CORE’s Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative (CLI), and the other was the Lutheran Congregations in Mission for Christ (LCMC) “Contract Call” option.  The church Council, the Call Committee, and even Pastor Olson began to consider new and exciting possibilities for identifying, enlisting and “calling” their next pastor.

The LCMC “Contract Call” model was (and is) described on their national website.  It was part of the LCMC website’s “Call Packet” and was described in detail in the “Glossary/Definitions in the Call Process” section on pages 19 and 20.

Portions of this “definition” included the following: “Congregations may call an individual to serve in their congregation with a contract call.  LCMC respects the freedom of each congregation to call pastors they discern are most appropriate for their ministry.  A congregation may enter into a contract call arrangement with any person who will subscribe to LCMC’s Statement of Faith and Pastoral Admonition, including the characteristic practices of the sacraments in the Lutheran tradition…Contract call pastors are strongly encouraged to be in an ongoing mentoring relationship with a certified LCMC pastor and to receive basic training for pastoral ministry and Lutheran theology…LCMC encourages all pastors to continue their education and specifically encourages contract call pastors to continue education with consideration of certification.” (And possibly pursuing a Master of Divinity degree.)

The second “ministry model” the Grace leaders discovered was the Lutheran CORE’s Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative (CLI).   CLI provided a step-by-step process to identify, enlist, train, educate and “call” one or more of their own lay leaders to begin a process of taking online seminary courses; and possibly working toward becoming an ordained Lutheran pastor. The “working toward” process would include serving in a part-time pastoral ministry role at Grace Lutheran while also beginning to take online seminary courses that could lead to a Master of Divinity degree.  The “steps” for this ministry model were (and are) found on the CLI slider on the Lutheran CORE website.  And the primary written resource on that slider was (and is) entitled, “How Your Congregation Can Identify, Enlist and Train Part-time Lay Ministers”.

As the Grace Lutheran Council and Call Committee members began to explore this new vision for securing their pastoral leadership, they also began studying New Testament passages that emphasized the (Lutheran) understanding of the “priesthood of (all) believers” as referenced in 1^st Peter chapter 2; and the ministry gifts of the Holy Spirit as described in 1^st Corinthians chapters 12 through 14, Ephesians chapter 4, and Romans chapter 12.

And all of this discussion and study was of course accompanied by prayer.  This was especially true when the discussion topic was, “who among our active members might God be calling to the pastoral ministry?”  In the context of these prayers and discussion two Grace Lutheran lay leaders came to mind; both with a long history as active Grace members.  In addition, these two members exhibited a deep personal faith, and had the requisite pastoral ministry gifts.  Finally, both candidates knew the majority of Grace Lutheran members on a first-name basis.  The decision was to extend this ministry “call” to both members; knowing that the congregation would be fortunate if even one accepted, and twice-blessed if both said yes.

Grace Lutheran was indeed fortunate because both Natalie (an empty-nest mother) and John (an active, recently-retired teacher) accepted the “call” to become “contract pastors” at Grace Lutheran.  All that remained was to work out—with each of them—the details of their employment “contracts”; including the number of pastoral-ministry hours they would work in a typical week, the stipends they would be paid, and their specific responsibilities.  Also negotiated in these contracts was the expectation the congregation would have as to which online seminary courses they might take.  (Tuition for these courses would be paid by the congregation.)  Finally, Pastor Olson, still a few months from his retirement, agreed to be the mentoring pastor for both John and Natalie; at least until his official retirement.  After his retirement the Council would seek an LCMC pastor to mentor John and Natalie online.

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     The hypothetical example of Grace Lutheran probably does not answer all of your questions.  Consequently, there are three things I want to point out:

1. Since this is a ministry model that assumes a congregation’s total ownership of the process, your church has the freedom to customize this strategy to address both your congregation’s specific expectations, and the needs and gifts of your future “contract pastor(s)”.  Needless to say, I can’t anticipate what those might be in the case of your congregation.

2. The above scenario pertains to an LCMC congregation.  If your church belongs to the North American Lutheran Church, the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America, or the Lutheran Church Missouri Synod, you would then need (obviously) to work within your denomination’s guidelines and expectations.

3. Finally, I am available—by email, phone or online—to answer any questions you might have which I do not address in this article.

Pastor Don Brandt
Lutheran CORE’s Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative (CLI)
pastordonbrandt@gmail.com
503-559-2034

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It has, for decades, been an incredibly unfair reality faced by smaller rural and inner-city congregations.  In a denomination that has traditionally insisted that viable, healthy congregations must be led by a resident, ordained pastor, the number of pastors willing to serve in these settings have often been “few and far between.”  Even back when there were an abundant number of seminary graduates, the majority of those graduates often showed little or no interest in serving churches located in such communities.  And this unfortunate attitude was not limited to graduating seminary students looking for a first call; it was also common among already ordained, serving pastors looking for their next call.

So what did these rural and inner-city congregations do when even new seminary grads had little interest in their calls?  They waited.  And they knew that eventually—if they waited long enough—their bishop or district president would find them a new graduate whom they could “take under their wing” and train.  Unfortunately, as soon as these first-call pastors were “trained” they would usually move on, within two or three years, to a larger church in a suburban setting.  Then the congregation’s pastoral search process would begin once more.

It used to be true—decades ago—that there was still an abundant supply of seminary graduates coming through the “pipeline.”  As a result, the national Lutheran church bodies could continue to insist—or at least imply—that healthy and viable congregations were, by definition, led by an ordained pastor.  But here we are in 2023.  And unlike decades back, there are far fewer seminary graduates; Boomer pastors have already or soon will be retiring; and smaller rural congregations are more often than not located in declining communities.  (Communities where the median age of their residents—and the congregation’s members—is in the late 50’s or 60’s.)  As a result, that traditional Lutheran ministry model—that the only viable congregation is one that can find and call an ordained pastor—simply has to change.  Unfortunately many of these congregations have been taught the false dichotomy that unless they can find and call an ordained pastor they might as well close their doors.

And that false dichotomy is not consistent with either the New Testament understanding of the church, nor with Martin Luther’s teaching regarding the priesthood of all believers. 

Tragically most Lutheran church bodies have failed to adequately model or advocate for intentional, long-term lay-led congregational ministries when there is no reasonable expectation that a resident pastor will ever be “called and installed.”  These congregations need a third option; not just the choice between an unending pastoral search process or closing their doors.  That “third option” is to become a truly lay-led congregation; a priesthood of believers not just in theory, but in terms of ministry practice.

Here is the stark truth of what is happening “out there” among many of our smaller congregations: They have been looking for a pastor for years.  In fact, some of them have gone three, four or more years without a resident pastor.  The longer they assume that such a pastor is “their only hope,” the more likely they will not survive as an organized faith community.  And they need to know that at least until the last Boomer pastor retires in the 2030’s, the number of pastoral vacancies will only grow, and grow dramatically.

Finally, these churches need to know that the work of the Holy Spirit in congregational life and ministry is not dependent on the leadership and presence of a resident, ordained seminary graduate.  This was true in the time of the early Apostolic church almost 2,000 years ago, and it is still true today.

“As you come to him, the living Stone—rejected by men but chosen by God and precious to him—you also, like living stones, are being built into a spiritual house to be a holy priesthood, offering spiritual sacrifices acceptable to God through Jesus Christ” 1st Peter 2:4-5 (NIV).

You might say we are beginning to witness the proverbial straw that is about to break the camel’s back.  The camel, in this case, is the Protestant ordained ministry.  (Including, of course, Lutheran pastors.)  The straw is the current pandemic, and all the ways it is contributing to the work-related stress of pastors in this already infamous year of our Lord, 2020.

And yet the “straw” metaphor doesn’t do Covid-19 justice.  This pandemic and its consequences would have been hard to even imagine just ten months ago.  Yet here we are.

 I retired from parish ministry less than two years ago.  Apparently just in time.  And while I am currently coaching numerous not-yet-retired Lutheran pastors, I have been personally insulated from the “new normal” full-time pastors are dealing with in this pandemic era.  So I was surprised to come across Pastor Thom Rainer’s latest article just posted on August 31^st.  The title alone gained my complete attention: “Six Reasons Your Pastor Is About to Quit”.

Who is Thom Rainer?  He is the former CEO of Lifeway Christian Resources, and currently leads the coaching ministry Church Answers.  And while Thom is Southern Baptist background, I’m convinced his insights apply to mainline Protestant pastors in general—including Lutheran clergy.

 Early in his article Thom writes this: “The vast majority of pastors with whom our (coaching) team communicates are saying they are considering quitting their churches.  It’s a trend I have not seen in my lifetime.”  (Keep in mind Pastor Rainer has been in ministry for almost forty years.)  Here are the six reasons, as described by Thom Rainer, why many pastors are “about to quit.”

1. “Pastors are weary from the pandemic just like everyone else.”  No surprise here.
2. “Pastors are greatly discouraged about the fighting taking place among church members about the post-quarantine church.  Gather in person or wait?  Masks or no masks?  Social distancing or not?”  Rainer also mentions the added stress when these conflicts have been politicized.
3. “Pastors are discouraged about losing members and attendance.”  Pastors I have been coaching are, this summer, seeing in-person attendance that is only 30 to 50% of pre-Covid levels.  And Rainer adds this: “Pastors have already heard directly or indirectly from around one-fourth of the members that they do not plan to return at all.”
4. “Pastors don’t know if their churches will be able to financially support congregational ministries in the future.”  And while giving might be healthy up to this point there is apparently mounting anxiety about whether this will continue to be the case in 2021.
5. “Criticisms against pastors have increased significantly.”
6. “The workload for pastors has increased greatly. … They are trying to serve the congregation the way they have in the past, but now they have the added responsibilities that have come with the digital world.  And as expected, pastoral care needs among members have increased during the pandemic as well.”

This pandemic has, in my view, created something of a “perfect storm” when it comes to the matter of clergy supply.  Even pre-Covid we were seeing the reality of many more pastors retiring than new pastors being ordained.  Now that trend will undoubtedly be accelerating, due in part to many pastors retiring sooner rather than later.

 Lutheran CORE’s Congregations in Transition (CiT) ministry coaches are available to help confessing Lutheran congregations who are or soon will be dealing with a pastoral vacancy in these uncertain and unnerving times.  If you are a congregational lay leader at a church that already has—or soon will have—a vacancy, or you are a pastor who will be retiring in the next one to two years, we can help.  Our coaching assistance, while at a distance, is comprehensive, and is customized to address your congregation’s unique ministry challenges.  If you want to know more, contact me, Don Brandt, either by email (pastordonbrandt@gmail.com) or phone (503-559-2034).

 And for every lay person reading this, do what you can to thank and encourage your pastor!

Dr. Don Brandt

Director, Congregations in Transition