In Ten Years? 

Who is going to be sitting in the pews in ten years’ time?  Ryan Burge, a Baptist pastor and professor, does statistical analysis about religion in America.¹ The research he does shows that 40% of Generation Z, ages 18 to 30, have no professed religious faith. “In 1972, about 2/3 of folks who were raised in a non-religious household switched to a religious affiliation in adulthood.”² Today nearly 80% of young adults who grew up in non-religious households remain without religious affiliation. This means that when the GenZ have kids they will be raising atheists. So a growing number of unbelievers will be raising more unbelievers which will decrease the number of Christians in our society.

On the other hand, as the older generations go onto the Church Triumphant this will also decrease the number of Christians in our society. The Church in the United States has been in a lull for about a decade where congregations are declining but still able to conduct their ministry. But this won’t be the case in another 10 years because very quickly many, many congregations will so diminish in size they will not have the numbers of people necessary to conduct evangelistic ministry. The language Ryan Burges uses to describe the inevitable decline of most Protestant denominations is “free fall”.³ Now, St. John’s has been blessed so we have a better distribution of ages than many congregations. But still . . . .

Who Sets the Agenda?

The question for your church and many other congregations is, “Do we feel compelled enough for our continued existence and for the sake of the Gospel to get out of our comfort zone to reach the unchurched?” 

Admittedly, the selfish motivation of reaching new people for the purpose of a congregation’s continued existence is not particularly inspired and actually comes across as manipulative. But maybe, the fear of our decline might cause us to look Jesus’ way.

Jesus would tell us that a more compelling motivation for reaching new people and raising up disciples is that Jesus is for sinners. In other words, the whole purpose of Jesus’ ministry is to reach and save sinners.⁴ The supply of those never runs out.

The first challenge for every congregation is who owns the church and gets to set the direction of the church. Congregations fight about this all the time. The strange truth, however, is that this question has been settled. Jesus asserts over and over again that he is Lord and sets the agenda.

He tells Peter that He Jesus will build the church and that the church will be able to take down demonic barriers.⁵ Paul repeatedly reminds us that Jesus Christ is the head of the Church.⁶  Until one of us dies on the cross and is raised from the dead, the church is bought and paid for by Christ. Even more, Christ and His Spirit sustain the Church. So we can claim no ownership.

Rather we are servants of the most high Lord. Jesus doesn’t ask nicely if we want to do his work. He commands. “Follow me.” “I will make you fish for people.” “Go and make disciples.”  Jesus doesn’t ask “please?”  He is Lord of the Church and he commands us. “As the Father has sent me, so I am sending you.”⁷

“I Am Going to Send You”

We do not have to worry though because Jesus our Lord doesn’t send us empty handed or even to rely upon ourselves. Consider this passage from Luke 24.

⁴⁴ He said to them, “This is what I told you while I was still with you: Everything must be fulfilled that is written about me in the Law of Moses, the Prophets and the Psalms.” ⁴⁵ Then he opened their minds so they could understand the Scriptures.⁴⁶ He told them, “This is what is written: The Messiah will suffer and rise from the dead on the third day,⁴⁷ and repentance for the forgiveness of sins will be preached in his name to all nations, beginning at Jerusalem.⁴⁸ You are witnesses of these things. ⁴⁹ I am going to send you what my Father has promised; but stay in the city until you have been clothed with power from on high.” ⁵⁰ When he had led them out to the vicinity of Bethany, he lifted up his hands and blessed them. ⁵¹ While he was blessing them, he left them and was taken up into heaven. ⁵² Then they worshiped him and returned to Jerusalem with great joy.⁵³ And they stayed continually at the temple, praising God.⁸

We learn:

• That Jesus is the fulfillment of all of God’s promises and that God continues to fulfill the promises in Christ in and through His Church.
• That the LORD opens up our minds so we may understand the Scriptures and faith be born in us. This should encourage us to pray the LORD will open the minds of new people to see Christ is their Savior through the Word.
• That God works in people through the proclamation of the Word to produce repentance and gives the forgiveness of sins that implants new life.
• That Jesus commands his disciples to spread this gospel to all people, not just where they are comfortable, like in Jerusalem.
• That He has clothed his Church with power from on High as the Father promised. We have received the Holy Spirit to carry out this mission.
• That the Ascended Lord blesses his Church as he reigns in heaven over all of creation.
• That we his earthly Church are to worship and praise God with great joy.

The challenge for us is to take Christ Jesus at his word. To follow and obey him. To rely on His Word and His Spirit to do this mission. To see the Ascended Lord as our savior and master. To devote our lives to joyfully worship and praise God with our every breath.

Jesus has promised if we will live according to his Word, he will grow his church. If we will live joyfully worshipping and relying on the LORD we will have something to share with this sin-soaked society.

May the God who gives endurance and encouragement give you all a spirit of unity with one another, in accordance with Christ Jesus, so that together you may with one voice glorify the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ. (Rom. 15:5-6)

Your servant in the Gospel, Pastor Douglas

Citations:
¹ https://substack.com/@ryanburge
²  Burge, Ryan, https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1F6QCKT6CD/
³  Burge, Ryan, “When Are Half Your Members Going to be Dead?: The tipping point for many denominations is not that far away.” https://substack.com/home/post/p-180956489
⁴ Mark 2:17, John 3:17, 1 Tim 1:15
⁵ Matt 16:18
⁶ Eph 5:23-26, Eph 4:15, Col 1:18, Eph 1:22, Col 2:16-23
⁷ John 20:21
⁸ Luke 24:44–53

In 1998, I moved with my wife and my 3 year old son to Pembroke Pines, Florida.  I was sent there to start a new congregation in an area of Broward County that was located between I-75 and the Florida Everglades. 

It was an exciting time, but also a little frightening.  Would I have what it takes to knock on 5000 doors?  Would I really be able to gather enough people to form a worshipping community within six months?  Would this group of people be able to grow enough in numbers and giving to officially organize as a congregation?   

The answer to each of those questions was yes!  We held our first worship six months after I arrived in Pembroke Pines.  There were over 100 people there on the first Sunday.  Two years later, we voted to become a congregation, with over 100 members.  Not only that, but our congregation was multi-cultural, reflecting the area in which we were located.  Finally, we had lots of children and families.  Each week, over a third of the congregation was under the age of 18.

Everything was going as planned except for one thing.  We had been unable to purchase property on which to build a place to worship, hold Sunday School, adult Bible studies, and have an office.  On three occasions, we almost made it, but something fell through.  To this day, 25 years later, that congregation still has to rent space every Sunday to hold worship and Sunday School.

Why was it so difficult?  There were several factors.  Broward County was running out of land.  The cities had reached the edge of the Everglades and could go no further. What land remained was at a premium.  In addition, all of the land that remained was covered in muck.  To develop a piece of property, you had to “de-muck”, which means to scrape off all of the muck until you reached limestone. Then you had to re-fill the land with suitable soil for building.  At the same time, you had to set aside a third or more of the property for wetlands mitigation.

However, that’s not the primary reason it was so hard for a congregation to buy property.  The real reason that it was difficult was that the local municipalities, along with the county government, did not want any more churches.  You heard that right.  Churches were not wanted because they didn’t add to the tax base.  Furthermore, I suspect they were seen to be sectarian and divisive in a multi-ethnic and multi-religious community.  All of the things normally done by churches and synagogues could be done just as well by the schools, libraries and public parks, it was thought.

Why do I drag up the past?  Because I thought at the time, and still think today, that what happened to my congregation 25 years ago may be a preview of what will happen to many congregations in the 21^st Century.  As church attendance drops, as more people identify as having no religious affiliation, and as the Church is seen more and more to be regressive and hateful, I expect government to seek to limit the freedom of the Church. One way to do that, among others, is through zoning and land use laws.  That’s what was used in Broward County.  Keep congregations from buying property and building facilities, and you limit their influence.

A further reason that I think this might be the future for many congregations is the growing denominational conflict which many of us have already experienced.  Over the past 25 years, Anglicans, Lutherans and Methodists, among others, have learned again and again that they may have to choose between faithfulness to the Word of God and owning property.   Sometimes, when that happens, there are enough people who have been “de-churched” to form a worshipping community.  Often, however, all that remains are Christians who have no church.  I have spoken to faithful Lutherans, who on being de-churched cannot find an orthodox Lutheran congregation within a reasonable driving distance. 

Unless we have a model of how to “do Church” without property and buildings, many faithful Lutherans will remain de-churched.  When I first faced this problem 25 years ago, there wasn’t a model available to me for doing mission without property and a building.  I had to do the best I could. 

At the end of the 20^th Century, there were two primary models with which I was familiar.  The first was the pastor centered model.  The second was the program centered model.  Both of those depend on a congregation owning property and facilities.  In the pastor centered model, the congregation gathered each week for worship and fellowship.  The pastor did ministry to and for the members in the building owned by the congregation.  (Evangelism consisted of the pastor visiting individuals in the community.)

The program centered model also required property and facilities, but more than what was owned by a pastoral centered congregation.  It was through the varied programs that the congregation did ministry to its members and reached out to the unchurched.  The better the programs and the more varied, the more people could be reached.  More than one called pastor and multiple lay ministers were required to run the programs of the congregation.  In order for all of this to happen, however, adequate facilities were a must.

When I was a pastor developer, property was key to the viability of a new church.  Generally speaking, the pastor developer was expected to locate more than 5 acres for purchase.  That’s because the goal was for new congregations to grow beyond the pastor centered model to the program centered model.  You’ll need more than 5 acres to build the facilities to sustain a program centered congregation.  On more than one occasion, I heard of a mission congregation that was shut down because it couldn’t find enough land.  In spite of what was said about “the Church is not a building”, buildings were considered essential.

I fear that if the Lutheran Church in the 21^st Century follows that model, it will be difficult to plant enough new congregations to reach the thousands of un-churched Lutherans in North America.  Even less will it be adequate to do the kind of mission that is required in our post-Christian society.   What models do we have for starting new congregations today?  What models do we have for a time when there are not enough pastors?  Not enough land?  Not enough facilities?  Do we simply say, “Starting a new congregation here is not a viable option?” 

Of equal importance is the question of how to grow a congregation.  What alternatives are there to the traditional Sunday School model, with accompanying Children’s and Youth programs?  Can a program model of ministry be replaced by a disciple making model?  Are there creative ways to raise up pastors and lay ministers in places where a pastor can’t be afforded?  We need answers to those questions if we want to do mission in the 21^st Century. 

With the Delta variant reminding us that this pandemic will be around at least into 2022, many congregations are facing the fact that they will not be seeing a significant percentage of their members returning to in-person worship this fall.  And the longer some members continue to only worship online, the more likely many of them will rarely, if ever, return to worship in your sanctuary.

 As I have been coaching church transition teams and call committees over the last eighteen months I always ask what their current attendance is compared to 2019.  In almost all cases the answer is that average in-person worship attendance has dropped 30 to 50%.

Needless to say, this is a serious congregational ministry crisis that needs to be addressed.  But what can be done?  I suggest two strategies.  One is to provide an on-going, quality member-care ministry for every member who worshiped regularly in 2019 but has been consistently absent from in-person services since then.  The second strategy is to institute ways these online worshipers can be engaged and discipled by and through your weekly online sermons.  Only a combination of these two strategies, in my view, will significantly reduce the number of online worshipers who will eventually be lost to inactivity.

Your member-care effort should include phone conversations, every two to four weeks, with lay volunteers who have been recruited and “trained” for this ministry.  These conversations would be to see how this person is doing, and to ask if he/she has any personal prayer requests.  The volunteer would not only offer to pray personally for the member; he/she would volunteer to pass the prayer request on to the congregation’s prayer team.  Ideally, each of these online worshipers should be contacted, consistently, by the same volunteer. 

Now for the second strategy: Striving to engage online worshipers through your weekly sermons.  One example is how one LCMC congregation in suburban St. Louis used a sermon series on the Gospel of Mark to encourage both in-person and online worshipers to read the entire Gospel.  Members were asked to read a chapter each week in preparation for the following Sunday’s sermon.  The chapters were broken down into daily devotional reading texts to encourage members to develop a daily Bible-reading discipline.  Another idea would be to invite online comments regarding the next Sunday’s sermon theme.  This feedback could be in the form of survey questions where their answers—sent in via email—could be incorporated (anonymously) into the following Sunday’s message.  One more idea is to offer a mid-week online, interactive Bible study for members who are on Facebook.  This would make it possible for live “classes” where participants could make comments in real time.  The result would be a discussion-oriented Bible class/devotional time.  And finally, why not have your congregation host one or more weekly Zoom Bible studies?  This could achieve a group dynamic which would be almost the same as gathering in person.  I have done a lot of work these last eighteen months on Zoom.  I find these Zoom meetings to be very discussion-oriented; especially when the total number of participants is not more than six to nine people.  And since the beginning of this pandemic a great many more Americans have become comfortable with and open to the idea of gathering and conversing online. 

All the above suggestions would help prevent increased inactivity among those members who are not yet able—or comfortable enough—to return to your in-person worship services and classes.  However, please note that the second-strategy ideas above presume that you will continue to offer online worship; at least as long as this pandemic continues.  You will want to do this not only for your members, but also as an outreach to the unchurched in your community.