By now most of you are probably aware of the current clergy supply crisis, and the fact that this shortage is unprecedented in our lifetimes.

     Just one factor—among many—contributing to this crisis was highlighted in a Wall Street Journal article this last month.  And while this article was not specifically about clergy, it was definitely relevant to what churches are facing when they have pastoral vacancies.  The article was about the lack of mobility among American households.  The August 17^th, 2025, WSJ article began with this subtitle: “Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs—and America’s mobility is stalling.”  Another quote: “Americans are stuck in place.”  Even more specifically, this article stated that, “Those who bought homes when mortgage rates were low or have stable white-collar jobs (which would, of course, would include clergy collars) are clinging to those jobs.”

     This article included the following statistics:

1. In 2024 home sales fell to their lowest level in almost thirty years.

2. In the 1950’s and 1960’s 20% of Americans would typically move each year.  In 2024, only 7.8% moved.

3. In one study, “Couples where both people work have the lowest levels of interstate mobility of any group.”

     Of course our current clergy shortage is not just about economic realities and housing.  We are also dealing with a significant drop—over the last 30 years—in the number of seminary graduates.  And we  still have large numbers of currently-serving Boomer pastors reaching retirement age.

     Now there are three caveats to this mobility crisis and whether or not it impacts your church:

a. If a pastor you call is not currently a homeowner that might simplify his or her relocation to your community.

b. Also, if your congregation owns a parsonage then there would be time for a new pastor to relocate and wait until mortgage interest rates drop before buying a home in your community.

c. Third, if your congregation is located in a metroplex your next pastor might already be living in your area and could commute to “work.”

     However, the primary point of this article is indicated in my title above.  And here is the bottom line: It’s time for congregational leaders in many congregations to consider the long-term implications of this clergy shortage, and adopt a strategy to insure they will have competent pastoral leadership in the future.  This new strategy is especially imperative for churches who currently have fewer than one hundred worshipers on a typical Sunday—which is the majority of LCMC, NALC, and ELCA churches.  If this describes your congregation then this is what you need to consider: That you will likely not be able to find and call a competent, ordained full-time pastor when your current pastor retires or departs to accept a new call.  In fact, the traditional operating assumption that your next pastor will be moving to your community from a different region or state is becoming extremely unlikely.

     But why is this issue something that especially needs to be addressed by smaller congregations?  Three reasons:

1. For smaller congregations there is a limit to how long most of them will remain stable and viable without an ordained pastor leading them.  Is this because pastors are, on a practical level, always indispensable?  Not at all.  But unfortunately, a significant percentage of life-long Lutherans perceive this is the case.  As a result this could mean a significant drop in worship attendance over time.  And that would threaten the viability of a small congregation’s ministry.

2. Congregations of this size can no longer necessarily count on their national church body to somehow provide them with their next pastor.  Why?  Because the shortage of ordained and competent pastors is simply too severe to be effectively addressed and overcome by our national church leadership.  And it’s not that they aren’t aware, or aren’t trying to address this crisis.  It’s due to the continuing exodus of retiring Boomer pastors and how full-time seminary enrollment over the last 20 to 30 years has plummeted.  In other words, this crisis cannot realistically be solved from the “top down”; at least not over the next five to ten years.

3. And while the clergy supply crisis will also have an impact on larger congregations, odds are that qualified pastoral candidates—when they are considering calls to more than one church—will often end up accepting calls to the larger congregation.

     So what can smaller congregations do given these challenges?  Pray?  Definitely pray.  Prayer helps.  But I suggest one particular prayer request: That God would help “raise up”, from among your active members, your congregation’s next pastor.  In other words, it’s time for churches to take full ownership in addressing this worsening clergy shortage by identifying and enlisting one (or two) members willing to be educated (online) and trained (in-house) to provide future pastoral leadership for your congregation.  This is nothing less than a strategy where your church takes ownership—on a practical level—to insure your future long-term viability as a congregation.   

     Now for some good news.  The great majority of seminary courses are now available online.  This means that a seminary education does not require that your future member-pastor leave your community to pursue her/his studies.  Also, eventually hiring and calling an active member means that your future pastor has already been thoroughly vetted in the best way possible; as one of your active members and lay leaders.  Furthermore, your pastor-in-training can be trained in-house by being employed by your church part-time while taking seminary courses part-time.

     Finally, the biggest single challenge in this strategy is to identify and enlist the right active member who is willing to consider pastoral training.  And the smaller your congregation, the more difficult this might be.  So “cast a wide net”.  Consider members of various ages who are in various life stages; whether active retired, empty nest, nesting stage, young adult, single or married.  Also, consider an active member who might have to be bi-vocational; in other words, continue his or her current job while serving your church as your part-time future pastor.

     For a more detailed description of what this strategy might look like, click here.  And if you still have questions, by all means contact me directly.

Pastor Don Brandt

Lutheran CORE’s Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative

[email protected]

 

Pastor Don Brandt

The Lutheran Congregations in Mission for Christ (LCMC), on its website, lists the average worship attendance of each of their 818 U.S. congregations.  This data represents a veritable “treasure trove” of information when it comes to how many of these congregations might be facing a crisis in the coming years concerning the viability of their ministries.  (This kind of information, by the way, is not available on the NALC or ELCA websites.)  Regarding the accuracy of these numbers, we need to keep in mind that the diligence of congregations in regularly updating their reported average attendance is probably a “mixed bag”.  To my knowledge the LCMC does not contact their churches each year to insure that the reported attendance figure is up to date.  And there’s another reality to consider: the cross-denominational impact of the pandemic on worship attendance.  We know that many churches saw their attendance drop between 10 and 40 percent between 2020 and 2023.  And some churches never fully recovered their losses in terms of in-person average attendance.  However, to avoid argument, I will assume that the LCMC attendance data is reasonably accurate and up to date.

Before summarizing this data I want to pose this question: At what point—when it comes to average attendance—are most churches facing nothing less than an existential crisis?  And for those churches facing such a crisis is there anything that can and/or should be done to maintain and preserve the viability of their congregational ministries?  Also, at what point do these smaller churches need to be asking whether they will always be able to assume the availability of an ordained pastor to lead them?

The following information represents the results of my online “survey.”  Of the 818 LCMC churches in the U.S. 484 churches report an average weekly worship attendance of 75 or less.  And of these churches, 276 report a weekly attendance of 40 or less.  Now given what I know regarding the current costs involved in calling a full-time pastor, I believe many of these 484 churches will be unable, in the coming years, to afford a full-time pastor’s salary with benefits and housing.  And because of the current clergy shortage, qualified pastors who are looking for a call usually have more than one opportunity to consider.  This gives a distinct advantage to those congregations that are able to offer the better salary and benefits package.  (In other words, usually larger churches.)

So what of the possibility of calling a part-time ordained pastor; especially when it comes to the 276 churches that have 40 or fewer people in worship each week?  This is definitely a possibility for churches that can no longer afford a full-time pastor.  However, as with full-time candidates, there is also a shortage of part-time pastors.  And with part-time pastors, call committees typically need to find a candidate that is close enough to commute to their community.  This factor, above all, limits the options when it comes to finding a qualified part-time pastor, especially in rural settings.  Then the usual fallback option is to find one or more “supply preachers” who live within driving distance of the congregation.  One more possibility to consider for these churches: enlist (and “train?”) one or two (or more) active members to share preaching responsibilities.

Here is the “bottom line”; too many smaller churches are making the erroneous assumption that they can stake their congregation’s future on always being able to find, call and afford an ordained pastor.  This is simply not the case for most of these smaller congregations.  When considering the LCMC, 60% of their congregations serve 75 or fewer worshipers in a typical week.  And over one-third of their churches serve 40 or less worshipers.

It is time for smaller congregations to consider long-term ministry strategies that do not assume the ongoing availability of ordained pastors.  Here—on a more constructive note—are some options that congregational leaders from these churches need to consider.  And sooner rather than later.

1. Consider whether one, two or three active members might be enlisted and trained to become part-time lay ministers for your congregation.  Their “training” could be online; either from Lutheran seminaries (like St. Paul Seminary), or through lay minister training programs like Beyond the River Academy or the LCMC Texas Mission District’s Harvest Workers ministry.  Online courses might focus on biblical studies, Lutheran theology, and preaching.
2. Check out Lutheran CORE’s Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative (CLI), which would mean having an “outside” coach to help your congregation address this ministry challenge.  (Full disclosure: I am the person for you to contact to find out more about CLI.)
3. Contact your regional mission district leader and ask for one or two names of competent retired Lutheran pastors who might be willing to enter into an online coaching relationship with your church council.  The primary focus of such a relationship is to prepare your congregation for a future that might not necessarily include an ordained pastor.
4. And the best long-term strategy might be do “raise up” someone among your active members who would consider eventually becoming your future ordained pastor.  This person might be active retired, or someone younger who would become a bi-vocational pastor, or a stay-at-home parent who has reached the empty-nest stage of life.  Obviously not all congregations have such a potential “candidate.” However, my guess is that too few congregations are even asking the question as to whether such a person is already a part of their congregational life.

What about your congregation?  Are you currently without a pastor?  Or is your current pastor close to retirement?  Does your church have an average weekly attendance of (approximately) 75 or less?  Or 40 or less?  Has your attendance been declining over the last five years?  Or longer?  If you have been in decline, and that decline continues, what do you anticipate your attendance will be in 2030?  What do you guess is the average age of your active members?  Is it old enough where your decline might actually accelerate?

These are difficult questions to even reflect upon, let alone discuss with your lay leaders.  However, this is a discussion smaller congregations definitely need to have.  We are entering an era when most congregations will not be able to depend on available ordained pastoral leadership.  We cannot afford to put off confronting this ministry challenge.  It’s time to act.

If you have any questions for me, including whether I can be of some assistance, email me at…

[email protected]