Pastoral Transitions: It’s About Planning Ahead
Since the median age of serving Protestant pastors is now estimated to be sixty, this means that fifty percent of pastors will most likely be retiring in the next five to ten years.
Now even if I was writing this article back in 1990, and the median age was this high, it would still be alarming. But not quite as alarming as it is in 2026; for at least four reasons.
1. In 1990, unlike today, the Baby Boom generation was in the nesting stage. As a result, there were many more parents and children in worship, and that meant thriving youth groups, full Sunday school classes, and larger confirmation classes.
2. In 1990, unlike today, large numbers of Lutheran congregations were experiencing growth in their worship attendance.
3. In 1990, unlike today, our denominations were usually in a position to help when a congregation’s pastor was retiring, because there were significant numbers of graduating seminary students available for call.
4. And in 1990, unlike today, there was an abundance of ordained, serving pastors available and willing to at least consider the possibility of accepting a call that involved their relocating and moving to a different part of the country.
So when it comes to pastoral transitions, what are we facing now, in 2026?
–In 2026 Baby Boomers might still make up the majority of your active members, but their median age is seventy-one; and their children have most likely moved away and are no longer attending church.
–In 2026 a mainline congregation would be an “exception to the rule” if it had a thriving youth ministry, and a strong and healthy Sunday school program.
–In 2026 the majority of our congregations are plateaued or declining in worship attendance.
–In 2026 our denominational leaders are likely to warn call committees not to “get their hopes up” when it comes to how long it will take to find their next pastor.
–And, in 2026 the number of pastors retiring is twice as high as the number of seminary graduates. This means that for each of the next five to ten years it will become even more challenging to find your next pastor.
All of these realities mean, not surprisingly, that pastoral transitions have become more challenging than ever.
This article is, in particular, for congregations that, in all likelihood, will be dealing with their pastor’s retirement within the next decade. However, I especially want to “speak” to congregational leaders—and their pastors—if that retirement will probably happen within the next five years.
How can you know exactly when this retirement will take place? For most of you, you cannot; at least not “exactly.” First of all, pastors themselves do not typically know; at least not more than one to two years in advance. Also, some pastors are not convinced that members necessarily need to know more than a few months before their retirement. (But that is, in my opinion, a misnomer.)
Here is the “bottom line”: It is almost always to a congregation’s benefit if lay leaders can plan ahead for an upcoming pastoral transition. Moreover, it is ideal if the retiring pastor can be involved in at least the early part of this advanced planning.
It is imperative that retiring pastors and congregational leaders not underestimate the challenges involved in achieving a healthy pastoral transition. In fact, as I mentioned in my previous article, author and church consultant Karl Vaters claims that, “Pastoral transitions are dangerous and traumatic times for churches. Other than (when new churches are first being planted) more churches close due to pastoral transition than for any other reason.”
Also, the risks and challenges involved with pastoral transitions are amplified and exacerbated due to some factors in addition to those I listed above. They include:
a. The longer your retiring pastor has served your congregation, the more important it is to plan ahead.
b. If your congregation is dealing with internal conflict, then the more important it is to plan ahead.
c. The smaller your congregation, the more likely your search process will be longer than you anticipate; and the more crucial it is to plan ahead.
d. The more geographically isolated you are (for example, rural), the more difficult it will be to find a candidate willing to relocate for your call. And, needless to say, this makes it more important that you plan ahead.
I recently read two articles on the subject of planning for pastoral transitions. The first was a published interview, in the Leading Ideas newsletter, with pastor and author Lee Kricher. The second article was from Leadership magazine, entitled “Planned Transitions Lead to Better Outcomes.
The occasion for Pastor Kricher’s interview was the recent publication of his book, “Seamless Pastoral Transitions”. The word “seamless” captures the over-riding emphasis and theme of this book; which is a transition where the retiring pastor and congregational leaders plan for an “overlap” where both the retiring pastor and the new pastor serve together. (Note: This would typically not be a recommended strategy when a congregation is dealing with major internal conflict. In that case a church would definitely need the services of an interim pastor.)
Some of you might immediately dismiss this idea of an “overlap” as nothing less than a “pipe dream.” And some mainline denominational executives would dismiss this kind of a transition strategy as ill-advised. And some of you might not be able to imagine that your retiring pastor—and/or the new pastor—would be comfortable with this idea. Also, there is the question of whether a congregation could afford to compensate both the retiring pastor and new pastor simultaneously; even if the retiring pastor would be willing to work, for a short period, on a part-time basis. However, consider some quotes from Pastor Kricher:
“If a church has positive momentum, if a church is making a positive difference in the community, why put a gap in place between leaders that could jeopardize that momentum? The most powerful outcome is that the momentum and mission of the church is not compromised because of an unnecessary gap between pastors.”
Pastor Kricher points to the biblical account of Moses handing over leadership over the Jewish people to Joshua. “Moses listened to his father-in-law Jethro, (Exodus 18) and he started to raise up other leaders. Moses started to share leadership not just with judges but with people like Joshua and Caleb, so that when it was time to choose a successor there were ready leaders available.”
On what is most helpful from the retiring pastor, Kricher says: “Sharing leadership is asking the question of what I can do to elevate the leaders around me and give them opportunities to gain experience.” This would ideally include the opportunity to elevate the pastor’s successor.
On a major “pitfall” for congregations facing a pastoral transition: “Dismissing the need for a detailed transition plan.”
Now for quotes from the Leadership magazine article, “Planned Pastoral Transitions Lead to Better Outcomes”. “When a transition is planned in advance, more than half of outgoing pastors stick around, whether they step back to continue on staff or withdraw to a lay role.” Also, “Planned transitions tend to produce positive results.” Another quote: “As a general rule, the higher the degree of congregants’ involvement, the more positive they feel about the final outcome” (of the transition).
Lutheran CORE offers two ministries which both offer coaching support for pastoral transitions: Congregations in Transition (CiT), and the Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative (CLI). If your congregation will be dealing with a pastoral transition in the next few years, these ministries can make a significant and positive difference in helping you navigate this major milestone in the life of your congregation. Details for both ministries are available on the Lutheran CORE website. The cost for my services is minimal, and I will continue to partner with you, in your transition, for “the duration.” If you have any questions, contact me directly by email: pastordonbrandt@gmail.com
–Pastor Don
