In Ten Years? 

Who is going to be sitting in the pews in ten years’ time?  Ryan Burge, a Baptist pastor and professor, does statistical analysis about religion in America.¹ The research he does shows that 40% of Generation Z, ages 18 to 30, have no professed religious faith. “In 1972, about 2/3 of folks who were raised in a non-religious household switched to a religious affiliation in adulthood.”² Today nearly 80% of young adults who grew up in non-religious households remain without religious affiliation. This means that when the GenZ have kids they will be raising atheists. So a growing number of unbelievers will be raising more unbelievers which will decrease the number of Christians in our society.

On the other hand, as the older generations go onto the Church Triumphant this will also decrease the number of Christians in our society. The Church in the United States has been in a lull for about a decade where congregations are declining but still able to conduct their ministry. But this won’t be the case in another 10 years because very quickly many, many congregations will so diminish in size they will not have the numbers of people necessary to conduct evangelistic ministry. The language Ryan Burges uses to describe the inevitable decline of most Protestant denominations is “free fall”.³ Now, St. John’s has been blessed so we have a better distribution of ages than many congregations. But still . . . .

Who Sets the Agenda?

The question for your church and many other congregations is, “Do we feel compelled enough for our continued existence and for the sake of the Gospel to get out of our comfort zone to reach the unchurched?” 

Admittedly, the selfish motivation of reaching new people for the purpose of a congregation’s continued existence is not particularly inspired and actually comes across as manipulative. But maybe, the fear of our decline might cause us to look Jesus’ way.

Jesus would tell us that a more compelling motivation for reaching new people and raising up disciples is that Jesus is for sinners. In other words, the whole purpose of Jesus’ ministry is to reach and save sinners.⁴ The supply of those never runs out.

The first challenge for every congregation is who owns the church and gets to set the direction of the church. Congregations fight about this all the time. The strange truth, however, is that this question has been settled. Jesus asserts over and over again that he is Lord and sets the agenda.

He tells Peter that He Jesus will build the church and that the church will be able to take down demonic barriers.⁵ Paul repeatedly reminds us that Jesus Christ is the head of the Church.⁶  Until one of us dies on the cross and is raised from the dead, the church is bought and paid for by Christ. Even more, Christ and His Spirit sustain the Church. So we can claim no ownership.

Rather we are servants of the most high Lord. Jesus doesn’t ask nicely if we want to do his work. He commands. “Follow me.” “I will make you fish for people.” “Go and make disciples.”  Jesus doesn’t ask “please?”  He is Lord of the Church and he commands us. “As the Father has sent me, so I am sending you.”⁷

“I Am Going to Send You”

We do not have to worry though because Jesus our Lord doesn’t send us empty handed or even to rely upon ourselves. Consider this passage from Luke 24.

⁴⁴ He said to them, “This is what I told you while I was still with you: Everything must be fulfilled that is written about me in the Law of Moses, the Prophets and the Psalms.” ⁴⁵ Then he opened their minds so they could understand the Scriptures.⁴⁶ He told them, “This is what is written: The Messiah will suffer and rise from the dead on the third day,⁴⁷ and repentance for the forgiveness of sins will be preached in his name to all nations, beginning at Jerusalem.⁴⁸ You are witnesses of these things. ⁴⁹ I am going to send you what my Father has promised; but stay in the city until you have been clothed with power from on high.” ⁵⁰ When he had led them out to the vicinity of Bethany, he lifted up his hands and blessed them. ⁵¹ While he was blessing them, he left them and was taken up into heaven. ⁵² Then they worshiped him and returned to Jerusalem with great joy.⁵³ And they stayed continually at the temple, praising God.⁸

We learn:

• That Jesus is the fulfillment of all of God’s promises and that God continues to fulfill the promises in Christ in and through His Church.
• That the LORD opens up our minds so we may understand the Scriptures and faith be born in us. This should encourage us to pray the LORD will open the minds of new people to see Christ is their Savior through the Word.
• That God works in people through the proclamation of the Word to produce repentance and gives the forgiveness of sins that implants new life.
• That Jesus commands his disciples to spread this gospel to all people, not just where they are comfortable, like in Jerusalem.
• That He has clothed his Church with power from on High as the Father promised. We have received the Holy Spirit to carry out this mission.
• That the Ascended Lord blesses his Church as he reigns in heaven over all of creation.
• That we his earthly Church are to worship and praise God with great joy.

The challenge for us is to take Christ Jesus at his word. To follow and obey him. To rely on His Word and His Spirit to do this mission. To see the Ascended Lord as our savior and master. To devote our lives to joyfully worship and praise God with our every breath.

Jesus has promised if we will live according to his Word, he will grow his church. If we will live joyfully worshipping and relying on the LORD we will have something to share with this sin-soaked society.

May the God who gives endurance and encouragement give you all a spirit of unity with one another, in accordance with Christ Jesus, so that together you may with one voice glorify the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ. (Rom. 15:5-6)

Your servant in the Gospel, Pastor Douglas

Citations:
¹ https://substack.com/@ryanburge
²  Burge, Ryan, https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1F6QCKT6CD/
³  Burge, Ryan, “When Are Half Your Members Going to be Dead?: The tipping point for many denominations is not that far away.” https://substack.com/home/post/p-180956489
⁴ Mark 2:17, John 3:17, 1 Tim 1:15
⁵ Matt 16:18
⁶ Eph 5:23-26, Eph 4:15, Col 1:18, Eph 1:22, Col 2:16-23
⁷ John 20:21
⁸ Luke 24:44–53

“I don’t want to offend anyone or lose my friends.” That was the reason one of my church council members gave as to why she holds back from talking to her close friends about faith.

Her response came from a discussion we were having about the importance of building intentional relationships with friends and neighbors with whom we can talk about what it means to be a follower of Jesus Christ. It’s reasonable to understand her hesitancy. Yet, simultaneously, sadly, this is an excuse many believers fall back on because they don’t know how. Admittedly, I have not been exempt from using it myself, that was until one day, I was moved to change.

I had been invited as a guest to attend an NALC Regional Convocation. During one of the breaks, I had an engaging conversation with four individuals from the same church, who were attending as a group. They had asked me about my seminary experience. Up to that point, I had had difficulties with the ELCA candidacy process and I was contemplating leaving to join the NALC.

Throughout our exchange, I noticed how easy it was to talk to them. Even though I was a fish out of water, so to speak, they never made me feel uncomfortable. Their questions were genuine, not attacking or forceful, all while respectful. As we neared the end of the break, they asked if they could pray for me. As I told them that I would appreciate it if they would, they did something quite unexpected; rather than going on their way, they surrounded me, each placing a hand on my shoulder or arm, and began to pray for me, right then and there. It caught me by surprise because I had never had someone not only offer to pray for me but to do it! Over the next few minutes, each of them took a turn praying over something they had picked up on as they listened in, praying for God to give me the insight I needed to make my decision, whatever it was to be, for strength and guidance to go wherever He called me. As they ended, I opened my eyes to find that there were no longer four people surrounding me; passersby had also stopped to pray, placing their hands on those around me.

That day, I witnessed a group of believers demonstrate what following Jesus looks like, and I saw that conversations about life and faith don’t have to be divisive, inspiring me to do the same.

When our Lord encountered someone who was spiritually and/or physically hurting, he didn’t attack them. He didn’t simply offer to pray for them and then continue on his way. Instead, he stopped and prayed over them at that moment.

In the years since, I have stepped out of my comfort zone and offered to pray for strangers—even even someone who struck up a conversation with me on a flight home from Texas.

The feeling I have after praying for someone is that of joy. Doing so reminds me of Luke’s Gospel, where Jesus sends out his disciples ahead of him. As Christ told his disciples (I’m paraphrasing), “If you meet someone receptive to the Word, have a conversation; if they are not, don’t force it and go on your way.” However, I have never encountered anyone who refused my offer of, ‘Can I pray for you?’

Yet, encouraging her and telling her how to do it—based on scripture—only goes so far. While I have had such a positive experience, I find myself asking how I can help empower my councilwoman to set aside her fear and step out in faith.

Her fear is reminiscent of the disciples when Jesus told them to feed the five thousand. They had no clue how, and they certainly didn’t believe they had what it took to get the job done until their shepherd showed them the way. Their reaction was evident; they needed more time to be equipped and empowered.

After they had spent some time watching and learning how Jesus ministered to others, he released his disciples to try it for themselves. That’s when he instructed them how to minister to those receptive to the Word of God and to those who are not. When they came back to him, they reported incredible joy. As her earthly Shepherd, I can see how God has prepared her to spend time with me to learn how to follow Jesus.

Editor’s Note: Pastor Megan Ann Shaffer is writing for Lutheran CORE for the first time. She is an NALC pastor in Pennsylvania.

“Ugh, discipleship is so law-based.” Sadly, I frequently hear this as a disciple-maker. Quite frankly, I can understand why people hold such a position, which results in their hesitancy as Lutherans to begin making disciples intentionally.

However, this interaction got me thinking. What causes such hesitancy and resistance to discipleship? One answer is easy. For years, outreach and evangelism were a silo within the church. Tasks that fell into either of these areas were often left to a team and/or the pastor. As times have changed, that approach no longer works for most congregations. Gone are the days when we could safely assume our neighbors were Christian. Now such assumptions are invalid due to the diversity of our communities.

Secondly, individual faith in America has been a matter of privacy for hundreds of years. My grandmother taught me that there are two topics you do not discuss at a dinner party: politics and religion.

Additionally, Lutherans face another layer of complexity due to the proper distinction between law and the Gospel. As those justified by faith in Christ rather than by good works, we proclaim the Gospel. Why would we focus on something that could trap our parishioners in the cycle of the law?

As disciple-makers, we have a strong tide to swim against while working to reshape the culture in which we live—if we are truly going to live out our vocation to follow Christ’s command to go and make disciples of all nations. It’s a lot to think about, so where does one begin? That was the question I found myself asking as I began my call to a congregation eager to grow. Taking all of these and many other factors into account could easily have overwhelmed me.

When faced with something overwhelming, my seminary professors emphasized that those are the moments when we need to use our toolbox. As pastors and church leaders, we are blessed with a wealth of knowledge available to us in our Lutheran tradition and within the broader Christian community.

Recently, I listened to a podcast featuring an interview with Pastor Bill Hull, who commented on the relationship between preaching and discipleship. He stated what my Lutheran homiletics professors taught me: how we preach and the focus of our preaching forms our parishioners. The idiom ‘you get what you give’ perfectly sums it up. Pastors preaching legalistic sermons form legalistically focused Christians. Likewise consumeristic preachers shape consumeristic Christians, and so on.

What Bill is saying makes sense: “If you want your parishioners to understand their identity as disciples, you must preach the Gospel accordingly.” But what made even more sense was what he said next: “We don’t start the conversation on discipleship at ‘make disciples.’” How can we expect our flocks to go out and make disciples if they have not been discipled?

As an example, when I was a child, my grandmother never told me to crochet an afghan. That would have been absurd since I had no knowledge of how to go about doing so. Instead, she sat down with me and showed me the basics. As I watched, Grandma demonstrated to me how she created each stitch. Additionally, she showed me how to seamlessly join colors, so they looked like they naturally flowed together. As she worked, I sat with her and would repeat aloud what she was going to do next. Over time, I tried out simple stitches with her help. Eventually, I could also work on my own and seamlessly join colors, so they naturally flowed into a functional piece of art.

Similarly, the goal of discipleship is to empower others to follow the Great Commission, as my grandmother taught me to crochet on my own. She did this by spending time with me. Christ invested in his disciples by spending time with them. Telling our parishioners to go out and do something they have no clue how to do absolutely produces hesitancy and resistance. Conversely, if one has some familiarity with a concept because they have heard about it, it is less intimidating. So consider priming the pump of discipleship by introducing it through preaching.

     To use a somewhat dated expression, it’s “hot off the press.” I am referring to the latest Pew Research Center “Religious Landscape Study.”  This is Pew’s third large-scale “Religious Landscape Study,” involving, in this 2023-2024 survey, 36,908 United States adults.  The first of these “Landscape surveys” was 2007, and the second in 2014.  As a result, we now have, between these three surveys, a thorough and comprehensive picture of U.S. religious trends over the last 17 years.

     To keep this in perspective, Pew has become the preeminent source for this kind of information.  Not even the Gallup organization can compete when it comes to findings and data related to religious life in the United States.  Gallup surveys contact only 1,000 adults.  And unlike Gallup, Pew Research’s survey of just under 37,000 respondents focuses entirely on in-depth questions related to religious affiliation, practices and beliefs.  

     So—now that I have your attention—here is a summary of the results of this latest Religious Landscape Study.

     First, the good news.  Unlike the 2007 and 2014 surveys, this survey indicated that the rate of decline in Americans identifying as Christians is leveling off.  The quote, in the introduction of this Pew report is, “After many years of steady decline, the share of Americans who identify as Christians shows signs of leveling off—at least temporarily—at slightly above six-in-ten…”

     Now the not-so-good news.  This “leveling off” needs to be considered in the context of long-term decline when it comes to…

1. The percentage of Americans who self-identify as Christians;

2. The number of Americans who report they attend church worship services at least once a month (now at only 33% of respondents); and…

3. The fact that the generation most likely to identify as Christian and worship regularly is aging (and dying) Boomers; while younger generations are far less likely to identify as Christians and far more likely to identify as “atheist, agnostic” or as “nothing at all.”

     And one more finding from Pew: When it comes to overall trends since 2007: “There are far fewer Christians and more ‘nones’ among men and women; people in every racial and ethnic category, college graduates and those with less education; and residents of all major regions of the country.”

Oh, and one more quote regarding these downward trends: “The changes are much more pronounced among ideological liberals than (they are among) conservatives.”

     For complete results from this survey you only need to go to the Pew website.

     I realize there might be few (if any) surprises in these survey results and trends.  However, I would like to share some practical strategies for your congregation to consider as it strives to be faithful, effective and relevant in our increasingly secular society.  The suggestions below are based on my work—over decades—working in a coaching role with pastors and lay leaders of over 500 Lutheran congregations.

1. Never forget that when it comes to a congregation’s number of active members, size matters. Implications?  Smaller churches cannot do everything well when it comes to their ministry efforts. Accordingly, they should focus on doing one or two of their ministries really well.  Some examples:

Quality worship (including congregational singing), small discussion-oriented groups (most often Bible studies and/or book studies), and local community service efforts your people can volunteer for.

2. A ministry focus on reaching nesting-stage families is incredibly important.  But it usually “takes families to attract families”.  So if you no longer have any families with children worshiping you might want to focus on one or more of the above strategies.

3. In smaller congregations—especially those worshiping fewer than between 50 and 75 at a given service—be sure to more-often-than-not select congregational hymns and songs that are both popular and familiar.  Otherwise you will have difficulty maintaining your current attendance over the long term.

     Finally, there are two primary ministry strategies that are the most meaningful and effective for congregations of any size.  The first relates to outreach and the second to in-reach and disciple-making.

A. Worship  This is not only about preaching and worship music (see above), but also Sunday-morning hospitality.  The bottomline here is this rule of thumb: The more meaningful your worship life—including congregational singing, preaching and hospitality—the more likely your members will invite friends, and the more likely first-time visitors will return for a second visit.

B. The second suggestion is disciple-making and small groups.  They go together.  The best venue for “making disciples” is small groups.  Here’s a challenge for your congregation: Rather than be satisfied with the number of groups already meeting within your congregation, how about “new groups for new people”?  For example, how about trying to launch at least one new group each year?

     If you would like free printed resources related to either worship ministry or small groups, email me at pastordonbrandt@gmail.com  Unless I happen to be on a trip I will email these resources to you within a few days of you contacting me.

Pastor Don Brandt

Congregations in Transition and Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 25 – 11 AM EDT

In addition to alerting people to ways in which the ELCA is going further and further off the rails, we of Lutheran CORE see as part of our work providing encouragement and resources for congregations and their leaders and lay members. 

Lutheran CORE is about to embark on providing a new series of resources – webinars on church leadership and ministry led by practitioners who know what they are talking about because they will be sharing insights and approaches that they have learned from their own ministry experience and have put into practice in their own ministry settings.  Many thanks to three members of the board – NALC pastors Brian Hughes, David Charlton, and Doug Schoelles – for articulating and developing the vision for this new ministry and doing the work to bring it to life.

The first webinar, entitled “Planning as a Paradigm Shift,” will be offered on Wednesday, September 25 from 11 AM to 12 noon Eastern Daylight Time.  Lutheran CORE vice president Brian Hughes says concerning the webinar, “Planning is deciding about a preferred future, especially when it comes to creating faithful disciples.”  He also said, “Planning for ministry means setting priorities which might, even in the best and healthiest of situations, require pruning something in order to add a new emphasis.”  He also shared that as we deal with the diminishment of our ministry amid the accelerating de-churching of America, church leaders need to figure out what path to take and how to convince others to join.

When asked why this webinar series starts with planning, Brian answered, “Planning assumes we’ve looked at our current reality and want to be somewhere else.  What is not working and what do we want to be about that’s different?”  When asked whether this webinar is a one-time event, he replied, “This is a taster offered by Lutheran CORE that will likely become a monthly offering with more content and other presenters already in the wings depending on the response and needs we hear.”

Brian Hughes is a retired pastor now rostered with the NALC and living in South Carolina.  After serving ELCA congregations in places like Capitol Hill (Washington DC), Pittsburgh PA, and the Bay Area of California, he finished up with almost twenty years in Columbia MD.  For several years he served as assistant to the bishop in the ELCA’s Sierra Pacific Synod (northern California and western Nevada) with seminary candidacy and first call leadership development as part of his portfolio.  He continues to be part of a movement of reintroducing faith formation into homes, multi-generationally.   After retiring from his ELCA congregation in Maryland in 2019 (where they had nine services a weekend in five languages) he launched an NALC street ministry in Baltimore that evolved into leading a Sunday morning worship service in a strip club.  His former congregation in Maryland is now LCMC.  He currently serves as vice president of the board of Lutheran CORE.  Mission and discipleship have been his passions throughout his entire ministry.

Here is a link to register for this webinar.  There is no charge for attending.