Ever since I became a Lutheran pastor I have been fascinated with denominational statistical trends.  I have especially been interested—and concerned—with trends among Lutheran denominations in general and, starting in 1987, the statistical trends for the ELCA in particular.

The ELCA currently stands out as the Lutheran denomination dealing with the most dramatic rate of institutional decline.  Or perhaps “dealing with” is something of a misnomer.  Why?  Because I see no indication that ELCA leaders even acknowledge their precipitous decline, let alone “deal” with it.

However, as an NALC pastor, I don’t want to only speak to what’s happening in the ELCA.  I also want to address what the NALC—and the LCMC—can learn from the astonishing rate at which the ELCA is losing members.  So bear with me as I share some ELCA statistical realities.

Even attempting to discern the actual rate of decline for the ELCA has, admittedly, been a significant challenge for me.  The reason for this is because, by and large, ELCA leaders have chosen not to publicly acknowledge their staggering losses.  And this has especially been the case since 2010.

The most striking example of the failure of ELCA leadership to address this issue was their lack of response to an article published by Faith-Lead Magazine in September of 2019.  This article was written by Luther Seminary (ELCA) professor Dwight Zscheile, and was entitled, “Will the ELCA Be Gone in 30 Years?”  Needless to say, this title captured my attention.  (And keep in mind that Professor Zscheile was and still is a member of the faculty at Luther, the ELCA’s largest seminary.)  The two most salient points of this article were predictions of the loss in baptized members and regular worship attenders if the internal demographic trends for the ELCA in 2019 continued.  And here were those predictions:

1. The ELCA would only have a total of approximately 67,000 members nationally by 2050.  And…

2. The number of ELCA worshipers—nationally—on a typical Sunday in 2041 will be less than 16,000.

Furthermore, this article made clear that, if these projections turned out to be accurate, the ELCA would no longer be viable as a national church body in 2050.

Given that, back in 2010, the ELCA still claimed on their website that they had “almost” five million members, I was initially skeptical that a denomination of that size could essentially implode by the year 2050.  And I was also not sure how ELCA leaders would respond to this article’s conclusions.  So in 2019 I started monitoring the ELCA’s national magazine, Living Lutheran, to see what their response might be.  I found absolutely no response to or acknowledgment of the 2019 article; or for that matter, any article where an ELCA leader addressed the subject of the ELCA’s institutional decline.

Granted, the ELCA’s national denominational website has, over the last fifteen years been periodically adjusting downward their stated national membership total.  They now (as of late 2025) describe that number as “nearly” 2.7 million members.  This represents a loss of approximately 2.3 million members in fifteen years.  And this translates into a 46% drop in membership in those fifteen years!

My on-going investigation, since 2019, to obtain the full story regarding what’s happening in the ELCA finally “paid off” this last November.  That was when I discovered an internal study by the ELCA’s own Research and Evaluation Team, released in February of 2025.  The title of this document is, “The Future Need for Pastoral Leaders in the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America”.  Now while the staff’s assignment was to address the future need for more ordained pastors, part of this document is a section focused on “the present state of congregations” in the ELCA.  In that section of the report the authors acknowledged that congregational membership figures were typically out-of-date; and that being the case, they instead looked at average worship attendance as the more meaningful statistic.  What did they report when it came to the “present state” of ELCA congregations?  Between 2015 and 2022, congregations with fewer than 50 in average attendance almost doubled.  In 2015, 3 out of 10 congregations reported less than 50 worshipers on an average Sunday.  By 2022, there were nearly 6 out of 10 churches in that size category.  For medium-sized churches (worshiping between 151 and 250) the trend was similar.  Congregations of that size were 12% of ELCA churches in 2015, but only 4% in 2022.  And finally, large congregations (worshiping over 250 in 2015) were 9% of ELCA churches in 2015, but only 2% in 2022.  Here’s a direct quote regarding these “large” ELCA congregations: “To be exact, in 2022, only 167 congregations (nationally) reported an average worship attendance over 250.”  Keep in mind that this is only 167 “large” congregations out of the 8,500 “worshiping communities” the ELCA currently reports on their website!

One more quote from this study: “In summary, the decline in worship attendance in congregations has profoundly reshaped the makeup of the ELCA.  Only a few years ago, the ELCA was composed mostly of small to medium-sized congregations.  Today, it is mostly very small congregations.”  (Emphasis mine)

Now keep in mind that since these statistics were true as of the year 2022, they no doubt are an undercount of the ELCA’s total losses as of 2026, and consequently minimize the current, full extent of the ELCA’s institutional decline.

But How is the ELCA’s Decline Relevant for Congregations in the NALC and LCMC?

I assume that most readers of this article belong to NALC or LCMC congregations.  So let me be clear: The primary reason why the ELCA decline is so dramatic, while both the LCMC and NALC appear to be relatively stable, is because there continues to be an exodus of ELCA congregations through disaffiliation.  And virtually all of these churches leaving the ELCA end up joining either (or both) the LCMC and NALC.  And it’s also important to recognize that movement from the ELCA to the NALC and LCMC does not constitute evangelistic growth.  To use a tired phrase, this is nothing more than a “reshuffling of the saints”.

Furthermore, it is imperative that we recognize that many of the institutional trends in the ELCA—such as plummeting numbers of baptisms and confirmations—and an aging membership, are also trends among many LCMC and NALC churches.  Just one demographic statistic that pertains to our country’s population as a whole: Between 2010 and 2020 the U.S. population of seniors 65 and over grew nearly five times faster than the overall population.  Not surprisingly, this trend has an impact on the overwhelming majority of our congregations.

However, to put it bluntly, I think we need to consider whether we can learn from the dramatic decline of the ELCA.  In other words, we need to ask whether the LCMC and NALC could be facing similar rates of decline in the not-too-distant future.

Now I’m convinced that part of the ELCA’s rate of decline is due to the increased politicization of the ELCA since 2009.  But I also believe that a second cause for this decline is an apparent complete disregard, by most ELCA leaders, of the importance of congregational evangelism.  So consider this a wake-up call for all Lutheran congregations: It’s time to make evangelistic outreach your top ministry priority.  And not just to stem the tide of future institutional decline.  Ultimately this is about our New Testament mandate to share the Good News; to witness to the increasing number of Americans who self-identify as “nones” when asked about their religious affiliation.  It’s about reaching out and connecting—as individuals and congregations—to those who do not yet know Jesus Christ as Savior and Lord.

Just trying to “keep the ship (your congregation) afloat” will no longer suffice.  The challenges we are facing are too significant for us to settle for a passive and/or reactive response.  Instead, we need proactive, congregation-wide strategies for reaching, evangelizing and discipling those in our community who are not a part of a Christian church.  In pursuit of that goal, I encourage you to consider the ministry strategies below.

Congregational Outreach Strategies

The single, overarching principle I advocate for is simply this: Creating new groups and ministries for new people.  And to pursue this principle in a comprehensive way, consider what this principle could entail in four areas of your congregation’s ministry.  (And if you can’t do all four simultaneously, choose one to start with, and try to excel in that one area of ministry.)

1. Small Groups and Bible Studies.  This could be your primary discipling (i.e., disciple-making) effort. It can be the best way to not only help members grow in their faith; it can also be a tremendous witnessing opportunity that will—incrementally—help motivate members to bring friends and acquaintances to your congregation.  Never forget the unfortunate reality with small groups that are only made up of already-committed members: they often become cliques.  However, small groups with a discipling emphasis can become effective ways to reach the unchurched; one person (or two) at a time. For published discipling small-group resources consider Sola Publishing.

2. Worship and Hospitality.  For your worship service to reach and assimilate new people it needs to be both participatory in its content and be characterized—before and after worship—by intentional hospitality.  Here’s the goal: Make your Sunday morning worship life the kind of experience that will motivate and inspire your members to invite and bring their unchurched friends and acquaintances to your service.

3. Community Outreach.  Do this primarily for the sake of those you serve.  But do it, in addition, so your members can use their gifts in such a ministry, and so your congregation will be seen, by your surrounding community, as the church that does far more than simply “take care of its own”.

4. Organizing and/or strengthening your ministries for children and youth; and for their parents.

This can be a huge challenge.  Some congregations are simply too small; and as a result don’t have any children or youth.  However, if you sense any potential at all to build this kind of ministry, be ready to invest the necessary resources to help make this happen.  Remember that for those congregations who end up without any nesting stage, active families, their future, long-term viability as a faith community is at risk.

If you have any questions regarding the details of these congregational outreach strategies, don’t hesitate to contact me directly by email.

Back in the fall of 2009, shortly after the ELCA national assembly actions created so much controversy, my congregational members were already leaning toward disaffiliation.  In fact, my co-pastor and I took a quick Sunday-morning written survey in the fall of that year to confirm our sense that the majority of members disagreed with the new ELCA policies.  Sure enough, two-thirds disagreed with the national assembly’s actions.

However, the leaders of our church knew that two-thirds disagreeing was a “far cry” from eventually convincing more than two-thirds to vote—twice—to leave the ELCA.  Furthermore, we were part of the Oregon Synod, and in our synod only four out of its 110 congregations ended up even pursuing disaffiliation.  And our congregation—Our Savior’s—ended up being one of only two churches to eventually succeed in disaffiliating. 

So as we began a one-year education process on the relevant issues surrounding disaffiliation, the goal was to do everything possible to minimize our losses at our first official vote; which ultimately took place in February of 2011.  Below are the major strategies we pursued on the way to our congregational votes; both of which ended up being over 90% supporting disaffiliation.

The first strategy was to learn from the experience of other congregations that either succeeded, or failed, in their disaffiliation process during the year 2010.  For those who failed we learned the principle of not voting until you know, with a high degree of certainty, that you will have at least 80% of members supporting your exit from the ELCA.  Why 80%?  Because many of those who show up to vote against disaffiliation will in all probability eventually leave your congregation.  And we wanted to minimize the number of people we would lose due to this ELCA-instigated controversy.  Also, we wanted to acknowledge that a pre-vote guesstimate of the vote results on our part might prove to be overly optimistic.

So how did we insure—prior to the vote—that we would have at least 80% of members voting in favor?  By conducting an anonymous, mail-in survey where both members in support and in opposition would be motivated to participate in our survey.  This mail-in survey, conducted in January of 2011, resulted in 84% stating that they would, at a special congregational meeting, vote for Our Savior’s Lutheran to leave the ELCA.

And what did we learn from congregations that failed in their disaffiliation vote?  We learned that the traditional and quaint principle, “don’t count your chickens before they hatch” was applicable to this situation.  A case in point: One of the two Oregon Synod churches which had already failed in their effort in early 2010 had miscalculated in their assumption that an overwhelming percentage of their members were so upset with the ELCA that they were ready to vote for disaffiliation in January of 2010.  But this large congregation ended up—with about 400 members attending their special congregational meeting—just seven votes short of two-thirds!  In other words, the clear majority of the over 400 members voting ended up on the “losing” side!  So for us the lesson learned was the necessity for 1) an extended pre-vote education process, and 2) having a high level of confidence as to the vote outcome based on a thorough, advance mail-in survey.  (Note: for smaller churches, informal face-to-face surveys will usually suffice when it comes to an accurate prediction of your formal-vote outcome.)

A second major strategy related to our one-year education process.  We decided to focus on the centrality of Scripture in the life and teaching of the church, and not as much on LGBTQIA+ issues.  Our primary emphasis was on this fact: there was and is no scriptural support for the actions of the national assembly in the summer of 2009. 

     Our third strategy was emphasizing to our members that the ELCA national assembly actions were taken unilaterally, and without the support of a majority of ELCA congregations.  In fact, the only national survey of ELCA congregations, before the assembly vote, showed that a clear majority of the congregations were in opposition to the recommended policy changes.  And yet ELCA national church leaders went ahead and supported these changes anyway.

Our fourth strategy was—during the one-year pre-vote education process—to give those in opposition to disaffiliation opportunities to publicly share their views.  And we did this both at two annual congregational meetings, and in numerous adult forums.

     And our fifth strategy was to follow the “letter of the law” laid out in the ELCA constitution for those congregations pursuing disaffiliation.  This is especially important in those cases where congregations are putting their property ownership at risk by not carefully following those constitutional requirements.

Our disaffiliation process from 2009 to 2011 was an incredible challenge involving significant prayer—and stress—on members, congregational leaders, staff and pastors.  However, I have never, in the last fifteen years, regretted helping lead Our Savior’s out of the ELCA.

But what about ELCA churches considering disaffiliation in 2025/2026?  My sense is that the challenges of the disaffiliation process today are not quite as daunting as in 2010.  And this is true despite the fact that the current ELCA constitutional requirements for disaffiliation are even stricter than they were fifteen years ago.  Then how can I say that today this process is not as “daunting”?  I say that because of the increasing politicization of the ELCA since the assembly actions of 2009.  This politicization of the ELCA continues to alienate many of their congregations.  And this was, in my opinion, inevitable given that many if not most of the more moderate pastors and members who were part of the ELCA in 2010 have since left.  And where are they today?  Not surprisingly, most of them now belong to either the LCMC (Lutheran Congregations in Mission for Christ) or the NALC (North American Lutheran Church).  Back in the late 80’s and early 90’s I was part of an ELCA synod’s staff, and then eventually the national staff of the ELCA’s Division for Congregational Ministries.  In that capacity my assignment was to travel and eventually work with the synodical evangelism committees of 25 of the ELCA’s 65 synods.  In fact I ultimately worked with pastors and lay leaders from over 500 ELCA congregations.  Back then the ELCA was a national church body comprised primarily of biblical and theological moderates; the great majority of whom understood that Scripture was and should continue to be the very foundation of our national church’s life and mission.  In my humble opinion that understanding of the centrality of God’s Word is no longer an emphasis among those who currently lead the ELCA.

    By now most of you are probably aware of the current clergy supply crisis, and the fact that this shortage is unprecedented in our lifetimes.

     Just one factor—among many—contributing to this crisis was highlighted in a Wall Street Journal article this last month.  And while this article was not specifically about clergy, it was definitely relevant to what churches are facing when they have pastoral vacancies.  The article was about the lack of mobility among American households.  The August 17^th, 2025, WSJ article began with this subtitle: “Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs—and America’s mobility is stalling.”  Another quote: “Americans are stuck in place.”  Even more specifically, this article stated that, “Those who bought homes when mortgage rates were low or have stable white-collar jobs (which would, of course, would include clergy collars) are clinging to those jobs.”

     This article included the following statistics:

1. In 2024 home sales fell to their lowest level in almost thirty years.

2. In the 1950’s and 1960’s 20% of Americans would typically move each year.  In 2024, only 7.8% moved.

3. In one study, “Couples where both people work have the lowest levels of interstate mobility of any group.”

     Of course our current clergy shortage is not just about economic realities and housing.  We are also dealing with a significant drop—over the last 30 years—in the number of seminary graduates.  And we  still have large numbers of currently-serving Boomer pastors reaching retirement age.

     Now there are three caveats to this mobility crisis and whether or not it impacts your church:

a. If a pastor you call is not currently a homeowner that might simplify his or her relocation to your community.

b. Also, if your congregation owns a parsonage then there would be time for a new pastor to relocate and wait until mortgage interest rates drop before buying a home in your community.

c. Third, if your congregation is located in a metroplex your next pastor might already be living in your area and could commute to “work.”

     However, the primary point of this article is indicated in my title above.  And here is the bottom line: It’s time for congregational leaders in many congregations to consider the long-term implications of this clergy shortage, and adopt a strategy to insure they will have competent pastoral leadership in the future.  This new strategy is especially imperative for churches who currently have fewer than one hundred worshipers on a typical Sunday—which is the majority of LCMC, NALC, and ELCA churches.  If this describes your congregation then this is what you need to consider: That you will likely not be able to find and call a competent, ordained full-time pastor when your current pastor retires or departs to accept a new call.  In fact, the traditional operating assumption that your next pastor will be moving to your community from a different region or state is becoming extremely unlikely.

     But why is this issue something that especially needs to be addressed by smaller congregations?  Three reasons:

1. For smaller congregations there is a limit to how long most of them will remain stable and viable without an ordained pastor leading them.  Is this because pastors are, on a practical level, always indispensable?  Not at all.  But unfortunately, a significant percentage of life-long Lutherans perceive this is the case.  As a result this could mean a significant drop in worship attendance over time.  And that would threaten the viability of a small congregation’s ministry.

2. Congregations of this size can no longer necessarily count on their national church body to somehow provide them with their next pastor.  Why?  Because the shortage of ordained and competent pastors is simply too severe to be effectively addressed and overcome by our national church leadership.  And it’s not that they aren’t aware, or aren’t trying to address this crisis.  It’s due to the continuing exodus of retiring Boomer pastors and how full-time seminary enrollment over the last 20 to 30 years has plummeted.  In other words, this crisis cannot realistically be solved from the “top down”; at least not over the next five to ten years.

3. And while the clergy supply crisis will also have an impact on larger congregations, odds are that qualified pastoral candidates—when they are considering calls to more than one church—will often end up accepting calls to the larger congregation.

     So what can smaller congregations do given these challenges?  Pray?  Definitely pray.  Prayer helps.  But I suggest one particular prayer request: That God would help “raise up”, from among your active members, your congregation’s next pastor.  In other words, it’s time for churches to take full ownership in addressing this worsening clergy shortage by identifying and enlisting one (or two) members willing to be educated (online) and trained (in-house) to provide future pastoral leadership for your congregation.  This is nothing less than a strategy where your church takes ownership—on a practical level—to insure your future long-term viability as a congregation.   

     Now for some good news.  The great majority of seminary courses are now available online.  This means that a seminary education does not require that your future member-pastor leave your community to pursue her/his studies.  Also, eventually hiring and calling an active member means that your future pastor has already been thoroughly vetted in the best way possible; as one of your active members and lay leaders.  Furthermore, your pastor-in-training can be trained in-house by being employed by your church part-time while taking seminary courses part-time.

     Finally, the biggest single challenge in this strategy is to identify and enlist the right active member who is willing to consider pastoral training.  And the smaller your congregation, the more difficult this might be.  So “cast a wide net”.  Consider members of various ages who are in various life stages; whether active retired, empty nest, nesting stage, young adult, single or married.  Also, consider an active member who might have to be bi-vocational; in other words, continue his or her current job while serving your church as your part-time future pastor.

     For a more detailed description of what this strategy might look like, click here.  And if you still have questions, by all means contact me directly.

Pastor Don Brandt

Lutheran CORE’s Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative

[email protected]

     To use a somewhat dated expression, it’s “hot off the press.” I am referring to the latest Pew Research Center “Religious Landscape Study.”  This is Pew’s third large-scale “Religious Landscape Study,” involving, in this 2023-2024 survey, 36,908 United States adults.  The first of these “Landscape surveys” was 2007, and the second in 2014.  As a result, we now have, between these three surveys, a thorough and comprehensive picture of U.S. religious trends over the last 17 years.

     To keep this in perspective, Pew has become the preeminent source for this kind of information.  Not even the Gallup organization can compete when it comes to findings and data related to religious life in the United States.  Gallup surveys contact only 1,000 adults.  And unlike Gallup, Pew Research’s survey of just under 37,000 respondents focuses entirely on in-depth questions related to religious affiliation, practices and beliefs.  

     So—now that I have your attention—here is a summary of the results of this latest Religious Landscape Study.

     First, the good news.  Unlike the 2007 and 2014 surveys, this survey indicated that the rate of decline in Americans identifying as Christians is leveling off.  The quote, in the introduction of this Pew report is, “After many years of steady decline, the share of Americans who identify as Christians shows signs of leveling off—at least temporarily—at slightly above six-in-ten…”

     Now the not-so-good news.  This “leveling off” needs to be considered in the context of long-term decline when it comes to…

1. The percentage of Americans who self-identify as Christians;

2. The number of Americans who report they attend church worship services at least once a month (now at only 33% of respondents); and…

3. The fact that the generation most likely to identify as Christian and worship regularly is aging (and dying) Boomers; while younger generations are far less likely to identify as Christians and far more likely to identify as “atheist, agnostic” or as “nothing at all.”

     And one more finding from Pew: When it comes to overall trends since 2007: “There are far fewer Christians and more ‘nones’ among men and women; people in every racial and ethnic category, college graduates and those with less education; and residents of all major regions of the country.”

Oh, and one more quote regarding these downward trends: “The changes are much more pronounced among ideological liberals than (they are among) conservatives.”

     For complete results from this survey you only need to go to the Pew website.

     I realize there might be few (if any) surprises in these survey results and trends.  However, I would like to share some practical strategies for your congregation to consider as it strives to be faithful, effective and relevant in our increasingly secular society.  The suggestions below are based on my work—over decades—working in a coaching role with pastors and lay leaders of over 500 Lutheran congregations.

1. Never forget that when it comes to a congregation’s number of active members, size matters. Implications?  Smaller churches cannot do everything well when it comes to their ministry efforts. Accordingly, they should focus on doing one or two of their ministries really well.  Some examples:

Quality worship (including congregational singing), small discussion-oriented groups (most often Bible studies and/or book studies), and local community service efforts your people can volunteer for.

2. A ministry focus on reaching nesting-stage families is incredibly important.  But it usually “takes families to attract families”.  So if you no longer have any families with children worshiping you might want to focus on one or more of the above strategies.

3. In smaller congregations—especially those worshiping fewer than between 50 and 75 at a given service—be sure to more-often-than-not select congregational hymns and songs that are both popular and familiar.  Otherwise you will have difficulty maintaining your current attendance over the long term.

     Finally, there are two primary ministry strategies that are the most meaningful and effective for congregations of any size.  The first relates to outreach and the second to in-reach and disciple-making.

A. Worship  This is not only about preaching and worship music (see above), but also Sunday-morning hospitality.  The bottomline here is this rule of thumb: The more meaningful your worship life—including congregational singing, preaching and hospitality—the more likely your members will invite friends, and the more likely first-time visitors will return for a second visit.

B. The second suggestion is disciple-making and small groups.  They go together.  The best venue for “making disciples” is small groups.  Here’s a challenge for your congregation: Rather than be satisfied with the number of groups already meeting within your congregation, how about “new groups for new people”?  For example, how about trying to launch at least one new group each year?

     If you would like free printed resources related to either worship ministry or small groups, email me at [email protected]  Unless I happen to be on a trip I will email these resources to you within a few days of you contacting me.

Pastor Don Brandt

Congregations in Transition and Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative

Pastor Don Brandt

The Lutheran Congregations in Mission for Christ (LCMC), on its website, lists the average worship attendance of each of their 818 U.S. congregations.  This data represents a veritable “treasure trove” of information when it comes to how many of these congregations might be facing a crisis in the coming years concerning the viability of their ministries.  (This kind of information, by the way, is not available on the NALC or ELCA websites.)  Regarding the accuracy of these numbers, we need to keep in mind that the diligence of congregations in regularly updating their reported average attendance is probably a “mixed bag”.  To my knowledge the LCMC does not contact their churches each year to insure that the reported attendance figure is up to date.  And there’s another reality to consider: the cross-denominational impact of the pandemic on worship attendance.  We know that many churches saw their attendance drop between 10 and 40 percent between 2020 and 2023.  And some churches never fully recovered their losses in terms of in-person average attendance.  However, to avoid argument, I will assume that the LCMC attendance data is reasonably accurate and up to date.

Before summarizing this data I want to pose this question: At what point—when it comes to average attendance—are most churches facing nothing less than an existential crisis?  And for those churches facing such a crisis is there anything that can and/or should be done to maintain and preserve the viability of their congregational ministries?  Also, at what point do these smaller churches need to be asking whether they will always be able to assume the availability of an ordained pastor to lead them?

The following information represents the results of my online “survey.”  Of the 818 LCMC churches in the U.S. 484 churches report an average weekly worship attendance of 75 or less.  And of these churches, 276 report a weekly attendance of 40 or less.  Now given what I know regarding the current costs involved in calling a full-time pastor, I believe many of these 484 churches will be unable, in the coming years, to afford a full-time pastor’s salary with benefits and housing.  And because of the current clergy shortage, qualified pastors who are looking for a call usually have more than one opportunity to consider.  This gives a distinct advantage to those congregations that are able to offer the better salary and benefits package.  (In other words, usually larger churches.)

So what of the possibility of calling a part-time ordained pastor; especially when it comes to the 276 churches that have 40 or fewer people in worship each week?  This is definitely a possibility for churches that can no longer afford a full-time pastor.  However, as with full-time candidates, there is also a shortage of part-time pastors.  And with part-time pastors, call committees typically need to find a candidate that is close enough to commute to their community.  This factor, above all, limits the options when it comes to finding a qualified part-time pastor, especially in rural settings.  Then the usual fallback option is to find one or more “supply preachers” who live within driving distance of the congregation.  One more possibility to consider for these churches: enlist (and “train?”) one or two (or more) active members to share preaching responsibilities.

Here is the “bottom line”; too many smaller churches are making the erroneous assumption that they can stake their congregation’s future on always being able to find, call and afford an ordained pastor.  This is simply not the case for most of these smaller congregations.  When considering the LCMC, 60% of their congregations serve 75 or fewer worshipers in a typical week.  And over one-third of their churches serve 40 or less worshipers.

It is time for smaller congregations to consider long-term ministry strategies that do not assume the ongoing availability of ordained pastors.  Here—on a more constructive note—are some options that congregational leaders from these churches need to consider.  And sooner rather than later.

1. Consider whether one, two or three active members might be enlisted and trained to become part-time lay ministers for your congregation.  Their “training” could be online; either from Lutheran seminaries (like St. Paul Seminary), or through lay minister training programs like Beyond the River Academy or the LCMC Texas Mission District’s Harvest Workers ministry.  Online courses might focus on biblical studies, Lutheran theology, and preaching.
2. Check out Lutheran CORE’s Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative (CLI), which would mean having an “outside” coach to help your congregation address this ministry challenge.  (Full disclosure: I am the person for you to contact to find out more about CLI.)
3. Contact your regional mission district leader and ask for one or two names of competent retired Lutheran pastors who might be willing to enter into an online coaching relationship with your church council.  The primary focus of such a relationship is to prepare your congregation for a future that might not necessarily include an ordained pastor.
4. And the best long-term strategy might be do “raise up” someone among your active members who would consider eventually becoming your future ordained pastor.  This person might be active retired, or someone younger who would become a bi-vocational pastor, or a stay-at-home parent who has reached the empty-nest stage of life.  Obviously not all congregations have such a potential “candidate.” However, my guess is that too few congregations are even asking the question as to whether such a person is already a part of their congregational life.

What about your congregation?  Are you currently without a pastor?  Or is your current pastor close to retirement?  Does your church have an average weekly attendance of (approximately) 75 or less?  Or 40 or less?  Has your attendance been declining over the last five years?  Or longer?  If you have been in decline, and that decline continues, what do you anticipate your attendance will be in 2030?  What do you guess is the average age of your active members?  Is it old enough where your decline might actually accelerate?

These are difficult questions to even reflect upon, let alone discuss with your lay leaders.  However, this is a discussion smaller congregations definitely need to have.  We are entering an era when most congregations will not be able to depend on available ordained pastoral leadership.  We cannot afford to put off confronting this ministry challenge.  It’s time to act.

If you have any questions for me, including whether I can be of some assistance, email me at…

[email protected]

Given the increasing shortage of ordained pastors available for call, now is the time when many churches will need to take the initiative to enlist one or two (or three) active members to be equipped and eventually called to serve their own congregation.

Now before you dismiss this strategy as totally impractical, first consider the difficulties involved in finding and calling a full-time ordained pastor in the next few years.  Then I will describe one possible scenario where a congregation chooses to equip and call one or two (or three) of their own members to serve in a pastoral role.

So first, to answer the question: just how difficult could it be in 2024, or 2025, to fill your congregation’s pastoral vacancy?  Glad you asked.  The answer, in part, comes down to basic math.  There are simply too many vacancies for too few available pastors.  And the small number of pastors who are looking for a call have too many options.  This means applicants for your vacancy will often be comparing your church with other vacant churches where they are also interviewing. 

However, it is not just about the quantity of available pastors, it’s often about the quality.  Many of the pastors out “looking” are not vetted; and might not be qualified to serve your church.  This is especially true in the LCMC, where their online “call packet” information makes it clear that vetting your applicants is entirely your congregation’s responsibility.

One more challenge related to the current clergy supply shortage: it will only become more severe in the coming years.  Projections are that there will be twice as many pastors retiring ten years from now than are retiring in 2024.

So now for a hypothetical example of how a congregation—Grace Lutheran—is addressing its pastoral vacancy.  It involves the following steps:

1. Once the congregation’s retiring pastor—who served Grace for 15 years—departed, the Church Council organized a transition team to consider how to move forward when the larger church is dealing with an unprecedented clergy shortage.  That transition team, after meeting for a couple of months, recommends that the Council pursue a two-prong strategy to address their vacancy.  First, they recommend organizing a call committee to “test the waters’ regarding whether the “right” pastor is out there; whether to serve as an interim or more “permanent” pastor.  The second recommendation is that, while the call committee begins this search, the Council begin a discernment process as to whether one or two (or three) active members can be convinced and recruited to take at least one seminary online course.  This initial course would be a way for these members to consider a seminary education and, hopefully, eventual ordination.  The cost of this seminary course would be covered by the congregation.

2. The Council’s first challenge is, of course, one of discernment.  In other words, identifying the right members to approach regarding this opportunity.  Prayer would play a large role as the Council moves forward.  Those considered would be active members who are already known by name by the majority of church members.  Just as important, they would be members who are recognized as having proven ministry gifts.

3. Given the long-term scope of this strategy, those approached would ideally be 60 years of age or younger.  That way they would potentially be able to serve the congregation in a pastoral role for years to come.

4. Those approached and recruited for this ministry opportunity would hopefully have a college degree. This would make them immediately able to pursue a seminary education without additional schooling.

5. These future pastoral ministers could either be currently working full-time (after all it’s only one initial online course) or part-time; or be active retired; or be a nesting-stage or empty-nester parent not working outside the home; or currently be serving the church as support staff.

6. Which initial seminary course would they be taking?  Negotiable.  I would recommend either Biblical studies, preaching, or Lutheran Confessions.

7. Who would these “recruits” be accountable to as they begin this online course?  Either the Church Council or a mentoring team of two to four lay leaders appointed by the Council.

8. What would the financial cost be to the congregation?  Minimal.  Initially, just the cost of the online seminary course(s). However if these members are also recruited to serve in some ministerial role while taking this course, they should be given a stipend as compensation.

I have, since 2019, provided some level of assistance to 38 different congregations dealing with a pastoral vacancy.  Most of these congregations initially approached their vacancy with the assumption that finding and calling a new pastor is essentially the same challenge it was ten to twenty years ago.

Nothing could be further from the truth.  The current shortage of qualified pastors available for call is unprecedented in my lifetime.  (And I’m seventy-two!)

This crisis is not something that can be entirely addressed by top-down denominational strategies.  Not only are such top-down strategies inadequate in 2024; they will be increasingly insufficient as long as the number of available pastors continues to plummet in the coming years.

So if top-down, national-church initiatives prove inadequate, what can the local church dealing with a vacancy possibly do?  Take ownership in addressing your long-term need for pastoral leadership.  In other words, “raise up” competent and gifted future pastoral leaders from among your own congregational members. 

And if your church is, or soon will be facing a pastoral vacancy, where do you begin?  By doing four things:

1. Read this article a second time.

2. Start praying; asking God for guidance when it comes to identifying active members of your church who have the personal integrity and the proven ministry gifts to consider becoming a pastor.

3. Approach your congregational leaders about considering some version of the above ministry strategy.

4. And if you initially need to talk with someone who is not a part of your congregation about how to proceed, email me, Don Brandt, at [email protected].

For an additional written resource related to this ministry challenge you can click on the link below.

Grace and peace,

Pastor Don Brandt

Lutheran CORE’s Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative (CLI)

“How Your Congregation Can Identify, Enlist and Train Part-time Lay Ministers”

Consider the contrasting good news and not-so-good news ministry challenges that are confronting many of our congregations in 2024:

Good News: Many local churches have now been blessed by the return of members to in-person worship services now that the pandemic is over.

Not-so-good News: A great many of our congregations have nevertheless experienced a significant decrease in overall weekly in-person worship attendance when compared to 2019; i.e., before the pandemic.

Good News: Many smaller congregations are in good financial shape; benefiting from the generosity of  the active Boomers who make up a majority of their membership.

Not-so-good News: These aging Boomers will not remain active indefinitely.  And there are very few Gen X, Millennial, and Gen Z members to take their place; whether as generous givers or volunteers.

Good News: Both the LCMC and NALC are continuing to attract new congregations.  The NALC now has a total of 500 congregations, and the LCMC is now made up of almost 1,000 churches.  (75 of these churches belong to both the NALC and LCMC.)

Not-so-good News: A significant percentage of these new congregations have been dealing with extended pastoral vacancies.  Some of them are joining, in part, in the unrealistic expectation that they will now have an easier time finding and calling their next pastor.    

Good News: Most LCMC and NALC congregations are aware of how important it is for them to prioritize and pursue the Great Commission.  As a result, their congregational leaders are both aware of the importance of reaching out to the unchurched, and are motivated to take action.

Not-so-good news: Effective congregational outreach and evangelism is actually more challenging now than in the past.  The reasons include…

1. The on-going and increasing secularization of American culture; a process that has only accelerated with the advent and ubiquitousness of social media.

2. The politicization of so many American congregations in a time of unprecedented levels of divisive and partisan political conflict.  Many congregations have been dealing with controversial political and social conflicts that have directly led to significant internal conflict.  Of pastors who admit to considering leaving the ministry, 38% said that “current political divisions” were one important factor.

3. The growing percentage of Americans who claim they have no religious affiliation.  Gallup has asked about religious affiliation going all the way back to 1950, when more than 90% of respondents identified as Christian.  In 2012 it was 77%.  In 2023 it was 68%.

     However, I would like to conclude with some extra good news as you and your congregation plan for the immediate future.

Most of you belong to church bodies—like the LCMC and NALC—which adhere to and advocate for basing our Christian identity on the centrality of Scripture.  As a result, your pastors and congregational leaders don’t need to make apologies for being part of a national church body that has based its primary identity more on secular causes than on the Great Commission.

While our culture has indeed become increasingly secular, and fewer people identify as Christians, many unchurched Americans are in almost desperate need of the kind of supportive and loving community that the local church—your church—can provide.  The need of many unchurched Americans to be a part of a caring community is now greater than ever.  The pandemic became a profound reminder, to millions of Americans, that they have been living lives characterized by loneliness and social isolation.  This presents an amazing opportunity for local churches to incarnate the love of Jesus Christ for the isolated and hurting people living in their local communities. 

So consider challenging yourself and the individual members of your congregation to pursue these three simple steps:

A. To each think of an unchurched friend (or acquaintance) living in your local community.  Begin to meet regularly with this person; walking alongside him/her as he/she faces the challenges of life.  This is primarily a listening ministry, and learning to ask the right questions as a way of bonding over time.

B. When the time is right, invite your friend to visit your congregation on a Sunday.  Offer to pick your friend up on that first Sunday.  And give two or three of your church friends (and the pastor) a “heads-up”, letting them know you are bringing a first-time visitor.

C. In this role you will essentially become your congregation’s ambassador for Christ to this new friend (and now visitor).  You will be the one to not only assure your friend’s welcome on that first Sunday; you will also increase the odds that he/she will be assimilated and discipled by the members of your congregation.

D. One more thing: Even if the new friend is unwilling to visit, do not end the relationship.  Keep getting together, even if this becomes a solo ministry on your part.  Ultimately it’s not necessarily about membership; it’s about discipleship.

Pastor Don Brandt

Congregations in Transition

The Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative

This article is written especially for smaller congregations that are either 1) already experiencing a pastoral vacancy, or 2) know that their solo pastor will be retiring within the next one or two years. If your congregation fits this description it is essential that you understand the full scope of the challenges you will face, or already are facing, when it comes to finding and calling your next pastor.

You might be hesitating to read further.  After all, you might be convinced that the “right” pastor is out there, and the Holy Spirit will undoubtedly lead him or her to your congregation.  But know this: The current shortage of Lutheran pastors is unprecedented.  Moreover, this shortage is unprecedented in my lifetime…and I was born in 1951!

However, if you keep reading you will learn of a congregational ministry strategy that provides you with a viable “Plan B” if and when you decide that it is highly unlikely that your congregation will—in the near future—be able to identify and call the “right” pastor.  And please note: Lutheran CORE is ready to come alongside your congregation to help you address this ministry challenge.  Now back to the matter of “unprecedented in my lifetime.”

About the only advantage to being 72 is all the recent history I have witnessed.  And in my lifetime I have witnessed phenomenal and dramatic changes in the mainline Protestant church in general, and the Lutheran church in particular.

First there is my family history.  I am a third-generation Lutheran pastor.  My parents were missionaries in China when, in 1949, they and my older sister had to be evacuated when the Communists took over the country.  My father—Les Brandt—subsequently had parish ministry calls in Minnesota and North Dakota; i.e., “Luther-land”.  In 1958 my father was called to start a new congregation in Orange County, California.  This was when Southern California was experiencing a significant migration of Midwestern Lutherans to that part of the country.  (In fact, Orange County, in the 1950’s, experienced a 278% growth in its total population!)

Now for what I personally experienced as a member of the Baby Boom generation.  In that rapidly-growing Orange County congregation I was surrounded by the children of my generation; children whose parents expected them to attend church and Sunday school.  Not surprisingly, my experience growing up in the church was profoundly impacted by being a part of what was then the largest generation in American history.  This included being a part of active church youth groups, and working for Lutheran Student Movement in the early 1970’s.  When I started Luther seminary in 1974 all the dorm rooms were occupied and the student body was close to 600 students.  (And there were then seven other Lutheran seminaries I could have attended.)  When I graduated (from Wartburg Seminary) there were only three students out of a class of 60 who had a call by the time of graduation.  Fact was there were far more graduates than there were available calls. 

Then, on a less personal note, there is the matter of the milestones in American church history I have witnessed.  The year 1960 was the year when 63% of Americans were members of Christian congregations.  In 2020 it was 47%.  In 1960 two-thirds of Americans identified as Protestants; mostly belonging to mainline churches.  Today less than 15% of Americans are part of mainline denominations.  As recently as the 1980’s and 1990’s a great many Lutheran congregations were benefiting from the phenomenon of nesting-stage Boomers who were returning to church because they decided that church would be “good for the kids”.  In one article about Boomer parents returning to church the weekly magazine of the Los Angeles Times quoted a parent who said, “I was pretty wild as a teen and young adult.  But now I am a father and I want my kids to have some values.”

So much for nostalgia.  In 2024 the picture is far more bleak.  And one of the dramatic examples of this—in addition to only 15% of Americans currently being a part of mainline Protestant churches—is the crisis when it comes to too few pastors available for too many pastoral vacancies.  The easiest way to explain this clergy supply shortage is to understand two current realities:

1. Too many Boomer pastors are retiring.  And the youngest Boomer pastors will not reach the age of 65 until 2029.  This means that, for at least the next five years, the number of vacancies will only increase.

2. There are far too few men and women pursuing a seminary education.  And many of these students will graduate at an older age than used to be the case; meaning that their time as active parish pastors will be relatively short.

Now for the unique challenges when it comes to smaller congregations identifying and calling the “right” pastor.  The current reality is that smaller congregations are at a distinct disadvantage even when they are able to provide an adequate salary package.  With too many calls for too few candidates, pastors today have multiple call options.  And most of them are applying for call opportunities at mid-sized and larger churches. 

Finally, the good news.  Lutheran CORE is offering coaching assistance for smaller Lutheran congregations who are already looking for a pastor, or who soon will be.  This ministry is the Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative, or CLI.  One important key to this particular ministry is to tap into the growing number of active, retired Boomer Lutheran pastors.  Some of these pastors are ready to coach a church, like yours, as you address the current clergy supply crisis.  (This would be online coaching, not in-person.)  With CLI your congregational leaders would be mentored by a capable pastor as you enlist and train a few members of your congregation to take on the role of lay ministers. 

Details about the Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative can be found here on the Lutheran CORE website.  Also, click here to read  a previous article which provides one possible, detailed scenario regarding how a congregation can launch this type of ministry.  And then, if you still have questions and want to communicate with a human being, contact me directly.  I would welcome the opportunity to connect with you; either by email or phone.

Pastor Don Brandt

Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative (CLI)

[email protected]

503-559-2034

I recently attended a traditional worship service where the emotional and spiritual highlight for me was the opening and closing hymns.  This was not because the sermon message was subpar (far from it), but because of the quality of congregational singing.  The opening hymn that Sunday was “When Peace Like a River”, and the closing hymn “Stand Up, Stand Up for Jesus”.

I hesitate to bring up the importance of congregational singing, because this particular worship ministry challenge can present something of an “uneven playing field”, especially for smaller churches. So full disclosure: In the above worship service I was one of about 150 worshipers.  So you could argue that my positive worship “experience” would not have been so memorable if I had been one of only 35 or 40.  In fact, in that scenario I might have only heard my own voice during these hymns. (Heaven forbid!)

However, I am absolutely convinced that the following worship music principle is true for congregations of virtually any size, not just mid-sized or large churches.   The principle is this: For any church worship service that includes hymns (or contemporary songs), the quality of congregational singing will usually depend on two factors: The familiarity and popularity (among worshipers) of a given hymn.  And this principle is just as true for a worshiping community of 50 or fewer as it is for a worship gathering of 150 or more.  In fact, the fewer people present at a worship service the more awkward it is for worshipers to feel comfortable and motivated to sing aloud when the hymn is not familiar and not a “favorite”.

Here are some questions that might have already come to mind for some of you:

1. “How am I to determine my congregation’s “favorites”?”  If you don’t trust your own judgment on this matter, a congregational survey might be in order.  This can be done during announcements on a well-attended Sunday.  Those worshipers who need more time can be invited to take the survey home and return it the following Sunday.
2. “What about when we want to introduce a new, less familiar hymn?”  Unless you have an above-average vocal song leadership team to help, do not introduce unfamiliar compositions at the beginning or end of a worship service.  You don’t want the first or last impressions of worshipers on that Sunday to be based on trying to sing unfamiliar and potentially difficult hymns.  Instead, “teach” and lead an unfamiliar hymn toward the middle of your service; perhaps after the sermon.  And please, let them learn this hymn sitting down.
3. “What about when we have a particular yet unfamiliar hymn we want to introduce based on the lyrics alone?”  Trust me on this: If your worshipers can’t sing it, it is unlikely they will appreciate the lyrics.  A suggestion: Have the lyrics printed out in the bulletin (or projected), and play an audio or video recording of this composition.

There is one additional reason for selecting familiar “favorites” for your opening and closing hymns: Quality congregational singing goes a long way toward encouraging members to worship in-person rather than online.  Why?  Because quality online vocal worship music is, more often than not, a oxymoron.  When watching online worship the viewer typically only hears the amplified voices of song leaders; or the two or three worshipers that happen to be closest to the microphone.  In fact, I later watched the very same service I mentioned above online.  The sermon message was just as good, but not the hymns.  All I heard during the hymns was the voices of two song leaders.  I could not hear the congregation at all.

So if you suspect that the quality of your congregation’s singing can be improved, I have a suggestion.  If you currently draw from a list of over one hundred different compositions for your opening and closing hymns, consider this challenge: Shorten your list to the fifty hymns and songs you deem—or discern to be, through a survey—your congregation’s familiar “favorites”.  Then for at least three months, only select your opening and closing hymns from this list.  (Just one caveat: If your worship attendance averages less than about fifty, avoid compositions—no matter how familiar—that are beyond the vocal range of most of your worshipers.)  My conviction is that, over this three-month trial period, you will be pleasantly surprised by what you hear.

Pastor Don Brandt

Congregations in Transition

The Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative

As Americans we are living in a time of increasing emotional despair.  And this crisis presents the Body of Christ with tremendous challenges as local churches consider how they might respond.

In the past, when I heard people complain about the state of American society and the level of social upheaval, I would respond, “But it’s not as bad as it was back in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s.  Well I no longer say that.  I think the state of American society, in 2023, is now worse.  I have never, in my lifetime, seen as many studies and statistics pointing to widespread depression and despair as I have read about in just the last two years.  Some examples:

1. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been conducting major surveys of high school students every other year since 2011.  The most recent survey—conducted in 2021 with the findings released in 2022—discovered an “overwhelming wave of violence and trauma and never-before-seen levels of hopelessness and suicidal thoughts among high schools students in the United States.”  This trend has been particularly alarming among high school girls.  “Almost 60% of female students experienced persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness during the past year, and nearly 25% made a suicide plan.”  This represents a 60% increase when compared to the survey results back in 2011.
2. Nicholas Kristoff, a writer with the New York Times, recently wrote, “Americans die from deaths of despair—drugs, alcohol and suicide—at a rate of more than 250,000 people per year, and the number of walking wounded is far greater.”
3. Suicide-related visits to pediatric emergency rooms in the United States—between 2011 and 2020—increased 500% (five-fold) among children, teens and young adults. (New York Times, 5-1-2023)

Back in 1920 the poet William Butler Yeats wrote his poem, The Second Coming.  His appraisal of the world of his day, no doubt shared by many of his peers shortly after the conclusion of the First World War, was incredibly stark.  “Things fall apart; the center cannot hold, the best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.”  Call me an alarmist, but I believe these words capture how a great many Americans—on both sides of the (political) aisle—view the current state of American society.    

There are undoubtedly many factors contributing to these startling statistics.  Perhaps the most frequent cause cited is the increased use of social media; especially among young people in general, and young women and girls in particular.  There is also the on-going decline in the number of two-parent households; increased rates of addiction; and the increasing numbers of Americans living alone.  And I would add the increasing secularization of our society and culture.

So what can the local church do to respond to all this despair?  In my opinion congregations can potentially make a significant and positive difference.  How?  By reaching out to some of the “walking wounded” in their local communities and introducing them to the blessings of being part of a caring Christian fellowship.  And, this introduction will typically happen one caring relationship at a time.  

However, there are at least two challenges faced by a great many local churches which need to be addressed.  One challenge is that too many congregations are just as polarized and conflicted as our surrounding culture.  We must not allow our churches to be characterized by discord and disunity.  It is incredibly difficult to witness to the love of Christ if this love is not evident within our congregations due to internal conflict.

A second challenge is that too many of our congregations have become immobilized by and fixated on their institutional decline.  This might be apparent due to decreasing worship attendance, or reduced financial giving, or perhaps their inability to find a new pastor during a prolonged vacancy.

Granted, our society is becoming increasingly secular, and the percentage of Americans identifying as “religious” has been decreasing.  However, more and more Americans—in their despair—are  recognizing their need to be a part of a loving and supportive community.  And they understand that this “community” needs to be in-person, not online.

Jessica Grose, a columnist for the New York Times, recently wrote an article entitled, “What Churches Offer That ‘Nones’ Still Long For”.  This article just appeared in the paper’s 6-28-2023 issue.  Keep in mind that Ms. Grose is a “none” of a non-observant Jewish background.  This was her final article in a five-article series on the increasing number of Americans leaving organized religion.  She wrote, “The one aspect of religion in America that I unquestionably see as an overall positive for society is the ready-made supportive community that churchgoers can access.”  One of the de-churched “nones” whom Jessica interviewed for her articles said the following: “I was raised Pentecostal and went to church three or more times a week, so I desperately miss the community.  It was where my friendships came from.  I have very few friends now.”  I would dare to say that hundreds of thousands of dechurched Lutherans probably have similar stories.  At the end of this article Ms. Grose wrote, “Almost everyone needs community to flourish.”  On a personal note, my wife and I, as we returned to more regular in-person worship attendance after the pandemic, realized how profoundly we had missed the worship and fellowship of our home congregation.

Writer Kirsten Sanders, in the recent March/2023 issue of Christianity Today, did an excellent job of describing the kind of Christian community which could reach the “walking wounded” of 2023.  “What makes the church (unique) is its knowledge of itself as called by God to be his representative on the earth, to be marked by unwieldy and inconvenient practices like forgiveness, hospitality, humility, and repentance.  It is marked in such a way by its common gathering, in baptism and Communion, remembering the Lord’s death and proclaiming it until he comes…When the church becomes preoccupied with defending itself to the world, it eventually becomes incoherent.  The only way to be a church is to speak the peculiar language of peace, of forgiveness, of repentance and resurrection.”

One of my favorite New Testament passages that I believe presents a vision of God’s love and Christian community is Ephesians 3:16-19.  Paul writes, “I pray that out of (the Father’s) glorious riches he may strengthen you with power through his Spirit in your inner being, so that Christ may dwell in your hearts through faith.  And I pray that you, being rooted and established in love, may have the power, together with all the saints, to grasp how wide and long and deep is the love of Christ, and to know this love that surpasses knowledge—that you may be filled to the measure of all the fullness of God.”

Don Brandt

Congregations in Transition /Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative

[email protected]